世界能源理事会-世界能源不可能三角指数2020（英文）-2020.10-69页_5mb

World Energy Trilemma Index 2020 Summary

Core Content

The World Energy Trilemma Index 2020 is a comprehensive tool developed by the World Energy Council in partnership with Oliver Wyman. It evaluates the performance of 128 countries across three key dimensions of energy sustainability: Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Environmental Sustainability. The index serves as a comparative benchmark to help countries understand their energy systems' strengths and weaknesses, and to guide policy-making for a more sustainable, secure, and equitable energy future.

Main Views

• Energy Sustainability is defined by the balance between three core goals: Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Environmental Sustainability.
• The Trilemma represents the challenge of achieving these three objectives simultaneously.
• The 2020 Trilemma Index marks the 10th anniversary of the index, which has been used as an interactive leadership tool to inform energy policy decisions.
• The index provides a grade (A to D), rank (1 to 125), and score (0 to 100) to evaluate a country's performance. The grade is based on a 90% weighting of the three core dimensions and 10% on country context.
• Direct comparisons between rankings are less informative, but the index encourages learning from each other to improve energy policies.
• The impact of the pandemic on the energy sector is significant, but the Trilemma Index reflects historical data, not including 2020's effects. These will be visible in the 2021 Index.

Key Information

Top Performers (Overall)

The top 10 countries in the 2020 Trilemma Index are dominated by OECD countries, with Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark leading the pack with scores of 84 and above. The top ten includes Canada, Finland, Romania, Denmark, Latvia, Sweden, Brazil, Czech Republic, United States, and Bulgaria.

Top Improvers (Overall)

The top three countries that have made significant improvements since 2000 are Cambodia, Myanmar, and Kenya. These countries have focused on increasing energy access and affordability for their populations.

Trilemma Dimensions

• Energy Security: Measures a country's ability to meet energy demand and withstand system shocks. The top performers include Canada, Finland, and Romania, which have strong energy infrastructure and diversified systems. Energy security has evolved to include resilience, especially in the context of decentralisation, digitisation, and decarbonisation.
• Energy Equity: Focuses on universal access to reliable and affordable energy. Top performers are Luxembourg, Qatar, and Kuwait, which benefit from low energy costs and high GDP. However, subsidies can hinder energy supply diversification and reduce Trilemma scores.
• Environmental Sustainability: Evaluates a country's ability to mitigate environmental degradation and climate change impacts. The top performers are Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway, with strong decarbonisation and energy efficiency policies. Diversified energy systems and renewable energy deployment are key to achieving good scores in this dimension.

Regional Analysis

• North America: Strong in energy security but faces challenges in energy equity. Canada leads in energy security due to its diversified energy mix and net-zero goals. The US and Mexico have different energy strategies, with the US drifting away from climate commitments and Mexico focusing on self-sufficiency.
• Europe: Continues to perform well in the Trilemma Index, but faces challenges in long-term energy security and market harmonisation. The pandemic could influence future energy transition and economic recovery strategies.
• Latin America and Caribbean (LAC): The region is moving in the right direction but lacks a strong regulatory framework. Energy equity is supported by social policies, while energy security and environmental sustainability are challenged by limited renewable deployment and reliance on natural resources.
• Asia: A diverse and dynamic region with both high and low Trilemma performers. Energy equity has improved due to affordable and modern energy access, while energy security remains a challenge due to high dependence on imports.
• Middle East and Gulf States (MEGS): Strong in energy equity due to affordable energy access, but energy security and environmental sustainability are challenged by uneven resource distribution and limited renewable adoption. Post-pandemic recovery may delay renewable reforms due to reliance on oil and gas revenues.
• Africa: Energy equity and security are challenging, with Sub-Saharan Africa having the lowest electricity access in the world. Five countries stand out for their national climate action plans in the Environmental Sustainability dimension.

Conclusion

The World Energy Trilemma Index 2020 highlights the complex interplay between energy security, equity, and environmental sustainability. It underscores the need for diversification, resilience, and inclusive policies in the energy transition. The pandemic has further reshaped the energy landscape, and its impact will be reflected in future indices. The index remains a vital tool for global energy policy dialogue and leadership, helping countries learn from each other and navigate the evolving energy sector.