IMF-荷兰温室气体减排综合战略（英）-2021.8-40页_1mb

Summary of IMF Working Paper: A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategy for The Netherlands

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the Netherlands, aligning with its ambitious national and EU-wide climate goals. The paper emphasizes the need for more effective carbon pricing mechanisms across sectors to ensure the Netherlands meets its 2030 and 2050 GHG reduction targets. It proposes fiscal reforms to improve the efficiency and fairness of the current policy framework.

Main Recommendations

The paper suggests several key fiscal policy reforms to support GHG mitigation:

• Industry: Replace the current carbon levy with a revenue-neutral feebate system to provide ongoing incentives for emission reductions, reduce competitiveness concerns, and automatically adjust with sectoral emission trends.
• Electricity: Eliminate taxes on residential and industrial electricity use, and introduce additional surcharges on CO₂ emissions from power generation and coal. This would help achieve the 2030 emissions target for the electricity sector.
• Transportation: Implement a pure feebate system for vehicle excise tax to encourage the adoption of cleaner vehicles, especially high-efficiency internal combustion engine vehicles. In the near term, raise diesel taxes to match gasoline taxes and, in the longer term, transition to km-based charging to better manage traffic congestion.
• Buildings: Apply feebates to promote energy efficiency and clean technologies. This could include incentives for energy-efficient appliances and electric heating systems, integrated into real estate taxes.
• Agriculture: Use feebates to encourage polyculture farming and reduce emissions from livestock. Additional fiscal incentives could be introduced to raise the relative price of emissions-intensive products like beef, pork, and dairy, while promoting organic farming.

Key Information

National and EU Emission Targets

• The Netherlands aims to reduce GHG emissions by 49% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 95% by 2050.
• The EU has announced a stricter target of 55% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2030, requiring the Netherlands to increase its emissions reduction commitment by an additional 22 Mt CO₂e.

Sectoral Emissions and Shares

• Total emissions (excluding land use) in 2019 were 183.9 Mt CO₂e, with a 17% reduction from 1990 levels.
• Power generation accounts for 22% of GHG emissions.
• Industry accounts for 29%, Buildings for 12%, and Transportation for 18%.
• Agriculture accounts for 9%, and LULUCF for 3%.

Current EU-Level Policies

• The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) covers emissions from power, industry, and aviation, with a cap set to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sets binding targets for sectors not covered by ETS, such as buildings and transportation.
• The EU Green Deal aims to strengthen these targets and expand ETS coverage.
• The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) was introduced to stabilize ETS carbon prices and prevent market oversupply.

Current Domestic Policies

• Fuel taxes in the Netherlands are relatively high compared to other EU countries, with gasoline and diesel taxes equivalent to €348 and €187 per tonne of CO₂, respectively.
• Natural gas taxes for residential and commercial use are among the highest in Europe.
• Electricity taxes are moderate, at €22 per MWH for industry and €32 per MWH for households.
• Vehicle excise taxes are progressive, with higher fees for vehicles emitting more CO₂. Battery EVs receive a €4,000 subsidy, which is proposed to be extended to 2030.
• SDE+ (Renewable Energy Production Incentive Scheme) is being broadened to support GHG reductions in other sectors, becoming the SDE++.

Structure of the Paper

• Abstract: Summarizes the main objectives and recommendations.
• I. Introduction: Outlines the urgency of GHG reduction and the need for a more efficient mitigation strategy.
• II. Emissions and Policy Background:
  • A. Emissions Trends: Discusses the current and projected GHG emissions, highlighting the need for accelerated reductions.
  • B. Emissions and Clean Energy Targets: Details the Netherlands' national and EU targets, including the impact of the EU Green Deal.
  • C. Current EU-Level Policies: Reviews the EU ETS and ESR, and their implications for the Netherlands.
  • D. Current Domestic Policies: Describes existing energy and vehicle taxation policies, their effectiveness, and limitations.
• III. Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Options: Proposes and evaluates various fiscal reforms to enhance GHG mitigation.
• IV. Concluding Remarks: Briefly summarizes the key findings and recommendations.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that a comprehensive GHG mitigation strategy centered on revenue-neutral feebate systems, revenue recycling, and revenue-neutral tax reforms can improve the efficiency of carbon pricing across sectors. It emphasizes the need for stronger and more transparent mechanisms to ensure consistent and effective carbon pricing, while also addressing household incidence and sectoral competitiveness. The proposed reforms aim to align the Netherlands with its climate commitments and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.