20251117-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_7页_763kb

Fixed Income Market Update - 17 Nov 2025

Market Overview

 *   **Bond Trading:**
    *   BABA: Sellers present initially but curve recovered to unchanged.
    *   JP AT1s (Nomura): Buyers, price recovered 0.3pt.
    *   LGFV USD: Buyers for higher-yielding issues (CFRA 高志和).
    *   Chinese IG: MEITUA/LENOVO wider; TW lifer wider; Macau gaming mostly stable/weak; Chinese Properties (FUTLAN, VNKRLE) mixed.
    *   KR IG: Slight widening amid balanced flows.
    *   JP: Better buying on Bank 31s FRNs (Mizuho, Sumitomo, MUFG); mixed NTT; SOFTBK fell. Bank NTFs slightly firm.
    *   AU: Small buying on bank FRNs; selling on WSTP T2s.
    *   ME: BSFR FRNs two-way; Qatar FRNs bought; Thai Bank bought; ARAMCO belly sold.
    *   SEA: BKK/BLL/BLSPI curves wider.
    *   AT1s: Euro market flurry of selling forหลาย AT1s (StanChart, Lloyds, SOE AT1s, Nomura, BNP). Insurance hybrids down led by recent issues.
    *   LGFV: RMs bought CNH; HF bought USD issues.

PBOC Policy Outlook: The CMBI expects the PBOC to cut the LPR by 10 bps and RRR by 50 bps by the end of 1Q26 due to a broad-based slowdown facing intensifying headwinds.

China's Economic Outlook (Yujing Zhang / Cyrena Ng):
* Growth: 4Q25 GDP growth expected at 4.5%, full-year 2025 growth at 5% vs. a revised 4.7% for 2026.
* Property Sector: Continues deep contraction (GFA, Sales start, prices). New/second hand sales remain sluggish. Months of supply high ("recbalancing" expected 2027-2028). Requires policy support.
* Consumption: Retail sales slowed to 2.9% in Oct (consensus 2.7%). Auto, appliances, decoration negative/gated by trade-in lift-off. "Double 11" boosted office/telecom equipment. Weaker high base expected for 4Q25.
* Investment: FAI contraction deepened, manufacturing/planned infrastructure down sharply. Includes anti-involution policy impact.
* Industry/Services: Output moderation driven by exports, domestic demand lift-off fading. Services (IT/soft) slightly recover.

Analyst Comments

SJM Holdings (Lisbon Casino):
* 3Q25 results/financials: Yoy worse than expected mainly due to satellite closures (Satellite market share down to 3.9%; closures planned). Adj. EBITDA fell due to lower chip sales, accelerated if transfer happens but timing fluctuates. Neutral on valuation, overweight MPEL/STCITY.
* Key data: Revenue, Adj EBITDA trends, consistent declines/+seasonal (chip) in Satellites.

China Economy Overview: Broad-based slowdown signals intensifying headwinds. LPR cuts and fiscal support expected post-1Q26. Property market crisis remains severe. Retail sales soften. FAI dramatically down. Output moderation.

LATEST NEWS & MARKET COLOR

 *   Inshore China bonds issued/amount raised.
 *   China property investment drop.
 *   Adani Green energy investment.
 *   US Accuses BABA.
 *   BHP/Vale litigation news.
 *   Hong Kong property sale.
 *   ReNew investing.
 *   Jollibee Foods EBITDA up.
 *   LG Chem/LG Energy Solution credit downgrade.
 *   Lippo Malls Indonesia IPO approval.
 *   Muthoot Finance NCDs.
 *   Nomura invests.
 *   Nissan S&P downgrade.
 *   Rio Tinto power deal.

Final segment summarizes disclaimer, data sources (Bloomberg?), dates.