2025-06-09-Jefferies-日本国际电气（6525）_收益回顾_增长由先进工艺驱动_18页_469kb

Kokusai Electric Research Summary

Earnings Review:

• Full-year FY25 results: Sales ¥238.9bn (+32% YoY), OP ¥51.3bn (+66% YoY). Adjusted OP ¥57.8bn (+¥20bn YoY), margin 24.2% (+3.3ppt YoY).
• FY25 outlook revised: Sales ¥244.0bn (+2% YoY), OP ¥49.2bn (-4% YoY), Adjusted OP ¥55.2bn (-4% YoY).
• Key drivers: Strong performance in global/logic segments, despite concerns over Q4 US-China tariff impact.

Market Position:

• Core business: Deposition equipment (batch ALD occupies >70% market share, unit-level ~50%).
• China Ratio: ~33% FY25 (¥80bn) - down from ~43% FY23.
• Gross margin: 42.6% target for FY26 (+0.2ppt YoY), higher than FY24 and FY25 guidance.

Analyst View:

• Rating: BUY, PT ¥4000 (16x P/E FY3/28E).
• Strong thesis: Outperformance due to growth in high-value ALD/structure change equipment, dominance in batch ALD.
• Upside catalysts:
  • GAA device adoption with advanced POR wins (target ¥20bn in FY26).
  • NAND orders (high single-digit layer climbs).
  • CoWoS interposer (TSMC test, but not included in FY26 guidance).
• Downside risks:
  • Chinese sales ratio falling below expectations due to tariff impact.
  • Sluggish memory market recovery, material delays in QDRAM'.

Key Takeaways:

• Semiconductor capital expenditure expected to decline YoY, amid macro challenges and trade tensions.
• Analysts are mostly optimistic, but cautious on tariff impacts and China-China dynamics.