2011-12-31-莱坊-China_Residential_Market_Watch_Q1_2012_16页_3mb

报告摘要

China Residential Market Q1 2012 Summary

Key Overview

The report analyzes the performance of China's primary residential market in the first quarter of 2012, highlighting ongoing price declines, reduced sales volumes, and stable inventory levels amid sustained government policies.

Price Trends

New-home prices in 20 major cities dropped by 6.0% year-over-year from their 2011 peak, reflecting a further quarterly decrease of 3.8% after accounting for property type, location, and other adjustments. Most cities saw prices fall, with only Tianjin and Ningbo reporting increases. Shanghai recorded the highest average prices.

Sales and Inventory

Primary residential transacted area fell by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 27% year-on-year, with 12 out of 20 cities experiencing declines due to post-holiday slowdown and buyer观望. Inventory levels dropped by 4.1% QoQ but remained elevated by 35.7% YoY, helped by developers' "price-to-sales" strategies from firms like Vanke and Country Garden.

Policy Impacts

Government policies, including tightening credit measures and potential property taxes, aim to sustain market control. Premier Wen Jiabao stressed continued policy enforcement, while some local adjustments were suspended, emphasizing risks from funding pressure if sales remain weak.

Forecast and Outlook

For Q2 2012, prices are expected to decline in most cities except Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Wuhan. High inventory and policy constraints are likely to keep the market subdued, with risks of bankruptcies for underperforming developers.