上海国际问题研究院-更多错失良机的悲剧：新冠疫情中的新兴与发展中经济体的人力和经济损失（英文）-2020.8-47页_1mb

Summary of The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities: COVID-19 Human Costs and Economic Damage in Emerging and Developing Economies

Core Content

This report, authored by Dan Steinbock, analyzes the human and economic costs of the global pandemic, with a particular focus on emerging and developing economies. It outlines the missed opportunities in pandemic response by major advanced economies, including the United States, Western Europe, and China, and highlights how these failures have accelerated the spread of the virus and deepened economic damage globally. The report also discusses the long-term implications of these missed opportunities, including debt crises, regional spillovers, and the failure to implement science-based policies.

Main Points

1. Global Pandemic Trends and Projections

• By August 2020, confirmed cases had exceeded 17 million globally, with nearly 700,000 deaths.
• The pandemic was accelerating, with 200,000–250,000 new cases and 5,000–6,000 new deaths reported daily.
• If the current rate continues, cases could reach 60 million and deaths 1.6 million by year-end.
• Official estimates are conservative, especially in poorer economies, due to limited testing and underreported data.

2. Missed Opportunities in Containment and Crisis Management

• Failed containment and ineffective crisis management in major advanced economies led to premature exits from lockdowns.
• These failures have compounded the pandemic impact, leading to new virus waves, resurgences, and imported infections.
• The WHO’s multilateral preparedness plan was not implemented effectively, leading to increased risks of future pandemics.

3. Regional Impacts

• The Americas experienced the worst regional crisis, due to weak health systems, poor containment, and premature normalization.
• US states were among the most affected economies, with 23 out of 25 most virus-affected economies being US states.
• Brazil had the second-highest confirmed cases globally, with over 2.6 million cases and nearly 70,000 daily new cases.
• Canada and Latin American countries like Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia also faced significant challenges, though with varying degrees of success.

4. Economic Consequences

• Baseline economic scenarios remain too optimistic, as the IMF/WEO projections underestimate the collateral damage.
• Fiscal packages amount to $11 trillion in the first half of 2020, potentially leading to future debt crises.
• Economic damage is expected to last for years, with lost progress ranging from 3–7 years in many economies.
• Low-income economies may experience losses of up to 25 years, due to pre-existing instability and lack of healthcare infrastructure.

5. Global Implications

• Unilateralism, especially the US withdrawal from WHO, is likely to increase global health risks.
• Science-based policies are essential for effective pandemic response, while politicized agendas have delayed and complicated the global fight against the virus.
• Multilateral cooperation is crucial to mitigate economic and health impacts and to avoid further crises.

Key Information

• WHO Director-General Tedros warned that the world is in a "new and dangerous phase" due to failed containment and ineffective crisis management.
• Defective herd immunity has been fostered in major advanced economies due to late mobilization and premature exits.
• Early containment in some countries like China, South Korea, and Singapore helped flatten the curve, but complacency has led to new clusters and resurgences.
• Data integrity is a major issue, with limited testing and underreporting in poorer economies leading to inaccurate assessments.
• The "Asian Century" is at risk due to global economic instability, trade wars, and technology conflicts.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the global pandemic has caused significant human and economic damage, especially in emerging and developing economies. It underscores the need for science-based policies, effective multilateral cooperation, and long-term preparedness to mitigate future risks and avoid further economic and social decline. The failure to act decisively in the early stages of the pandemic has led to missed opportunities that will have lasting consequences.