2018-中国战略_军事力量与经济学（英文版）-11mb

Summary of "Chinese Strategy, Military Forces, and Economics: The Metrics of Cooperation, Competition and/or Conflict"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the evolving strategic relationship between the United States and China, focusing on military and economic metrics that illustrate the shift in China's global influence. It outlines the U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS) from 2017 and 2018, which identify China as a critical strategic competitor alongside Russia. The report emphasizes the U.S. strategic response to China's military and economic expansion, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

Main Views

U.S. Strategic View of China

• Strategic Competitor: China is viewed as a strategic competitor that challenges U.S. power, influence, and interests through economic coercion, military modernization, and territorial claims.
• Military Modernization: China's rapid military modernization is aimed at limiting U.S. access to the region and enhancing its own strategic position.
• South China Sea Disputes: The U.S. criticizes China's militarization of the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles and bomber aircraft, as a violation of international law and a threat to regional stability.
• Freedom of Navigation: The U.S. asserts that freedom of navigation is a principle that supports all nations, not just the U.S., and that China's actions undermine this principle.
• Diplomatic Approach: The U.S. seeks cooperation with China where possible, while also being prepared to respond to aggressive actions. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rules-based order and open dialogue.

China's Economic Rise

• GDP Growth: China's GDP is projected to overtake the U.S. by 2028 at current growth rates, and it is expected to reach a significant percentage of the global GDP by 2040.
• Economic Indicators: China's GDP per capita is still much lower than the U.S., but it is growing rapidly. China's export and import figures show its increasing integration into the global economy.
• Trade Flows: China is a major player in global trade, with significant trade volumes with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. It is also expanding its influence through initiatives like the One Belt, One Road (OBOR).
• Energy Routes: China's reliance on the South China Sea and Strait of Malacca for energy imports underscores the strategic importance of these regions to its economic and military posture.

Global Engagement and Military Power

• Strategic Interests: China's growing global engagement includes economic investments and military presence in regions such as the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
• Military Spending: China's military expenditures have grown significantly, with official estimates showing a rise from $144.3 billion in 2016 to over $180 billion in 2016, and expected to reach $260 billion by 2020.
• Military Modernization: The report highlights China's efforts to modernize its military forces, including naval, air, and land capabilities, as part of its broader strategy to achieve regional and global dominance.
• Technology and Innovation: China is investing heavily in technology, including space, cyber, and anti-space capabilities, to gain parity and leadership in strategic domains.
• Regional Dynamics: The U.S. and China are engaged in a complex web of cooperation, competition, and conflict, with the U.S. emphasizing the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

Key Information

• U.S. Strategy: The U.S. aims to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region through alliances, partnerships, and a rules-based order. It is prepared to respond to China's aggressive actions but prefers cooperation where possible.
• China's Strategy: China's military and economic strategies are aimed at enhancing its global influence and securing its interests in the Indo-Pacific. Its actions in the South China Sea are seen as a challenge to U.S. and international norms.
• Economic Indicators: China's GDP is growing faster than the U.S., and its trade and investment activities are reshaping the global economic landscape. However, its per capita GDP remains significantly lower.
• Military Metrics: China's military spending and modernization efforts are increasing, with a focus on naval and air power. The U.S. is concerned about China's ability to project power and its implications for regional security.
• Strategic Implications: The document suggests that while there is potential for cooperation, the U.S. and China are increasingly competing for influence, and the U.S. is taking a firm stance to counter China's expansionist policies.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex and multifaceted relationship between the U.S. and China, highlighting both economic interdependence and strategic competition. It serves as a reference for understanding the evolving dynamics of their interaction, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that includes both cooperation and deterrence. The U.S. remains committed to maintaining its strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific and upholding international norms, while China continues to assert its influence through economic and military means.