2011年-世界发展银行全球_Russian_federation___Social_Expenditure_and_Fiscal_Federalism_in_Russia_83页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Report No. 54392-RU: Russian Federation Social Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism in Russia

Core Content

This report, titled Social Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism in Russia, provides an analysis of the efficiency of public spending in the health and education sectors across the Russian Federation. It also explores the role of fiscal federalism in shaping social outcomes and the potential for reforms to improve both efficiency and equity.

Main Objectives

To benchmark Russia's social spending and human development outcomes against OECD countries.
To present a regional topology of spending efficiency in health and education.
To identify options for improving efficiency in public spending on health and education.
To analyze the system of inter-budgetary transfers and suggest improvements for better delivery of social services.

Key Findings

1. Efficiency Potential in Social Spending

Russia has significant potential to improve the efficiency of its social sector spending.
Current efficiency reforms could enhance human development outcomes within the existing resource envelope.
Reducing physical inputs (e.g., school sizes, hospital beds) and optimizing resource allocation can lead to better outcomes and fiscal savings.

2. Regional Variations in Efficiency and Outcomes

There are substantial regional disparities in both the level and efficiency of social spending.
Some regions have made significant efficiency gains without compromising human development outcomes.
More reform-oriented regions tend to be more efficient in their spending.

3. Factors Influencing Efficiency

Policy factors under regional control are more important in explaining efficiency than geographic or demographic factors.
Educational outcomes are influenced by the quality of inputs (e.g., teacher qualifications, computer-student ratio), not just quantity.
Health outcomes are impacted by the quality of healthcare services, including access to primary care and the implementation of performance-based incentives.

4. Fiscal Federalism and Inter-budgetary Transfers

The system of inter-budgetary transfers plays a crucial role in supporting social service delivery and equity.
These transfers help reduce regional disparities in spending potential but are not sufficient to eliminate them.
The report suggests improvements to the current system to better reflect priorities and enhance efficiency.

International Comparisons

3.1 Overall Social Spending

Public social expenditures as a share of GDP in Russia are below OECD averages.
Social spending per capita in Russia is lower than in many OECD countries, especially in health and education.

3.2 Education Expenditure

Russia's educational test scores (e.g., PISA, TIMMS, PIRLS) are relatively high compared to EU countries.
The student-teacher ratio and school sizes are relatively low by international standards.
However, educational outcomes are not strongly correlated with the quantity of inputs but with the quality (e.g., teacher qualifications, technology access).

3.3 Health Expenditure

Healthy life expectancy in Russia is lower than in OECD countries.
The number of hospital beds and doctors per capita is relatively high, but health outcomes remain poor.
The efficiency of health spending is not well aligned with outcomes, indicating a need for reforms.

3.4 Social Protection Expenditure

Social protection spending in Russia is relatively low compared to OECD countries.
Targeted social assistance programs have shown some success in reaching the poorest quintiles of the population.

Regional Analysis

4.1 Education Sector Reforms

Reforms have focused on improving efficiency through institutional autonomy and per capita financing.
The introduction of the National Projects has increased public spending on education and health.
Performance indicators have been introduced to monitor regional progress in human development outcomes.

4.2 Regional Variations in Education

Regions like Ryazan and Kirov have similar fiscal and physical inputs but show different educational outcomes.
Ryazan outperforms Kirov in key outcomes such as passing rates and exam scores.
The report highlights the importance of quality inputs in achieving better educational results.

5.1 Health Sector Reforms

Reforms have aimed to improve efficiency and outcomes through performance-based payments and primary care emphasis.
The MHI (Mandatory Health Insurance) system has been a focus of reform, though it faces challenges in implementation and equity.

5.2 Regional Variations in Health

Regional differences in health spending and outcomes are significant.
The report finds that some regions, such as Chuvash Republic, have made progress in improving efficiency and health outcomes through performance-linked incentives.

Efficiency and Equity

The report emphasizes the importance of policy factors in explaining regional efficiency.
Fiscal equalization transfers help reduce regional disparities in social spending but do not fully address them.
Efficiency improvements could free up significant fiscal resources (e.g., 25-30 billion RUB in education, up to 180-200 billion RUB in health).

Methodological Approach

The analysis uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate efficiency.
DEA compares inputs and outputs across regions and countries to estimate relative efficiency.
It allows for international and regional rankings of efficiency.

Pros of DEA

Provides a direct measure of relative efficiency.
Non-parametric approach, avoiding assumptions about the production function.
Handles multiple inputs and outputs.
Enables consistent comparisons across regions and countries.

Cons of DEA

Does not explain the determinants of efficiency.
Efficiency scores are relative, not absolute.
Not all inputs can be fully accounted for.
Results are sensitive to input/output selection and outliers.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of efficiency reforms in the health and education sectors.
It highlights the need for a more effective system of inter-budgetary transfers to support equitable and efficient social service delivery.
Regional disparities in fiscal capacity and human development outcomes remain a challenge.
Policy-driven reforms are essential for improving efficiency and outcomes, and the report provides empirical evidence and policy options to support this.

Key Recommendations

Strengthen the system of inter-budgetary transfers to better reflect social service priorities.
Focus on quality inputs in education and health, such as teacher qualifications and technology access.
Implement performance-based incentives to improve efficiency and outcomes.
Enhance targeting of social assistance programs to reach the most vulnerable populations.

References and Annexes

The report includes detailed data and analysis from multiple annexes, including:
- Data and DEA Estimation of Efficiency
- Regressions Explaining Regional Variation in Expenditure per Student
- Results of Regressions Exploring the Correlates of Education Outcomes
- Progress in Physical Inputs and Health Outcomes across Regions with Various Degrees of Efficiency Improvement
It also references several key studies and reports, including the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMMS), which provide international benchmarks for educational outcomes.

Summary of Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Healthy Life Expectancy vs. Per Capita Health Spending
Figure 2: Regional Example of Variation in Education Inputs and Outcomes
Figure 3: Fiscal Transfers from Federal Budget as a Share of GDP
Figure 4: Volume and Structure of Inter-budgetary Transfers
Figure 5: Per Capita Fiscal Equalization Grants across Regions
Figure 6: "Equalization Gap" Per Capita across Regions
Figure 7: Regional Spending on Health and Education Relative to the Equalization Gap
Figure 8: Public Social Expenditures as Share of GDP across Countries
Figure 9: Public Educational Expenditure and GDP Per Capita
Figure 10: Russia's Educational Test Scores in an International Perspective
Figure 11: Student-teacher Ratio and Average Class Size - Russia vs. Other Developed Countries
Figure 12: Total Health Spending Per Capita - Russia vs. OECD Countries
Figure 13: Physical Inputs in the Health System - Russia vs. EU
Figure 14: Adult Mortality Rate vs. Total Per Capita Health Spending
Figure 15: Public Social Protection Expenditures per Capita
Figure 16: Social Assistance Expenditure by Type of Program
Figure 17: Share of Benefits to Poorest Quintile
Figure 18: Levels and Trends in Education Expenditure per Student across Regions
Figure 19: Variation in Unified State Examination Scores across Regions
Figure 20: Efficiency and Expenditure per Student across Regions
Figure 21: Overall Efficiency and Educational Outcomes
Figure 22: Financing of Health Care
Figure 23: Regional Variation in Health Expenditure Per Capita
Figure 24: Share of Consolidated Regional Expenditure on Physical Inputs
Figure 25: Doctors and Hospital Beds per 10,000 People Across Regions
Figure 26: Regional Variation in Selected Health Outcomes
Figure 27: Overall Efficiency and Health Expenditure Per Capita Across Regions
Figure 28: Trends in Efficiency vs. Physical Inputs and Health Outcomes, 2001–2006
Table 1: Public Expenditures in Russia as a Share of GDP, 2006–10
Table 2: Structure of Social Spending in Russia vs. OECD Average
Table 3: Sources of Financing and Provision of Education Services
Table 4: Expenditures on Various Levels of Education by Tier of Government
Table 5: Examples of Regions with Improved Efficiency, 2001–2006

Conclusion

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the efficiency and equity of social spending in Russia, emphasizing the need for policy-driven reforms and improvements in the inter-budgetary transfer system. It serves as a valuable reference for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance the effectiveness of social sector investments.

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