2025-06-16-花旗集团-Accent集团有限公司（AX1）_Accent集团有限公司（AX1.AX）_市场能否再次提速_16页_1023kb

报告摘要

Accent Group Ltd (AX1.AX) Analysis Summary

Performance: Recent sales momentum has weakened, with a -2.5% LFL decline in the last 16 weeks, despite easier comps. FY25 EBIT guidance of $108-111 million is -18% below VA Consensus, primarily due to tough trading conditions, promotions, and gross margin declines. The company attributes this to promotional pressures.
Valuation and Rating: Citi maintains a Buy rating based on Accent's undemanding valuation, with a target price of A$1.67 (down from A$1.36). Earnings and sales projections have been revised downward by -28% to -30% respectively. The expected total return is 27.2%, and the current price performance reflects an undervaluation opportunity.
Growth Opportunities: Citi highlights potential for growth through i) expansion of private label brands like Nude Lucy, ii) store rollout including Sports Direct, iii) reinvestment in the existing store network, and iv) targeted buyback programs, indicating medium-term improvement.
Risks: Downside risks include i) gross margin pressure from AUD weakness and promotions, ii) loss of distribution licenses or brand exposure, iii) consumer spending slowdown or inventory issues, iv) channel conflicts, v) competitive intensification, and vi) prolonged mall disruptions. Additionally, the Hoka and Vans brands show moderating growth, adding monitoring risk.
Outlook: Citi expects a gradual improvement over the medium-term with interest rate cuts and a strengthening consumer backdrop over the next 12 months. However, the stock is perceived as sold off excessively, supporting the Buy recommendation, despite challenging short-term earnings risks.