20150608-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE2015-6-8_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This daily investment note provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock market performance, highlighting key stocks, sector trends, valuation metrics, and macroeconomic data. It aims to guide investors on potential opportunities and risks in the current market environment.

Key Market Trends

Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,260, down 1.1% from the previous day, with a 15.5% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
HSCEI closed at 13,915, down 1.5%, and had a 16.1% YTD increase.
Shanghai Composite closed at 5,023, up 1.5%, with a 55.3% YTD gain.
Shenzhen Composite closed at 3,052, up 0.9%, with a 115.7% YTD gain.
DJIA closed at 17,849, down 0.3%.
S&P 500 closed at 2,093, down 0.1%.
Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,068, up 0.2%.
FTSE 100 closed at 6,805, down 0.8%.
DAX closed at 11,197, down 1.3%.
CAC 40 closed at 4,921, down 1.3%.
Nikkei 225 closed at 20,512, up 0.3%.
Taiwan Weighted closed at 9,340, down 0.1%.

Stock in Focus: AIA (1299.HK)

Last Close: HK$50.75
Entry: HK$50.50
Target: HK$58.00
Stop-loss: HK$45.00
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +17.6% / -0.9% / +4.5% / +31.3%
Market Cap: HK$611.39 billion
3M Average Daily Volume: 27.9 million shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 20.52X

AIA is considered a safe harbor due to its low correlation with the Shanghai Composite and strong Q1 business growth. It is currently undervalued at around 2.0X its embedded value per share and is recommended for entry at HK$50.50 with a target of HK$58.00 and a stop-loss at HK$45.00.

Today's Top Picks

Logan PPT (3380.HK):
- Price: HK$3.30
- Purchase Price: HK$3.30
- Target Price: HK$3.60
- Stop-loss Price: HK$3.10
- Reason: May sales volume increased by 80% YoY, indicating positive outlook.
ABC Com (30.HK):
- Price: HK$0.405
- Purchase Price: HK$0.405
- Target Price: HK$0.450
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.340
- Reason: Stock price was lifted after consolidation, suggesting a small bet opportunity.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (1D % Change)

Sports Accessories: +1.7%
Gaming: +1.0%
Building Materials: +0.7%
Department Store: +0.4%
Infrastructure: +0.3%
Environmental and New Energy: +0.1%
Medical: +0.1%

Worst Performing Sectors (1D % Change)

HK Consumer Group: -0.1%
Telecoms Equipment: -0.1%
Consumer Staples: -0.1%
Steel: -0.2%
REITs: -0.2%
Airline: -0.3%
Chinese Telecoms: -0.4%

Market Valuations

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	12.8	11.4	12.4	-13.0	10.9
HSCEI	9.7	8.9	9.3	3.3	11.0
Shanghai Comp	20.1	11.1	81.2	25.1	14.0
S&P 500	17.7	14.4	23.0	4.7	11.9

The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI are currently trading at valuations above their long-term average, while the Shanghai Composite and S&P 500 are significantly higher.

Market Data Highlights

Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers (1D % Change):

HUA HAN BIO-PHAR: +5.5%
BIOSTIME INTERNA: +5.4%
SINOPHARM-H: +4.4%
RENHE COMMERCIAL: +4.3%
LUYE PHARMA GROU: +4.0%

Worst Performers (1D % Change):

BYD CO LTD-H: -11.1%
CARNIVAL GROUP: -10.6%
SHENZHEN INVEST: -9.8%
CHINA PUBLIC PRO: -9.6%
HI SUN TECHNOLOG: -9.2%

HSCI Volume Filter

SHENZHEN INVEST (604.HK): 1,238.1 million shares turnover, up 1,238.1% from average.
CARNIVAL GROUP (996.HK): 1,207.4 million shares turnover, up 1,207.4% from average.
MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 762.9 million shares turnover, up 762.9% from average.
SHANDONG WEIG-H (1066.HK): 675.0 million shares turnover, up 675.0% from average.
WEICHAI POWER-H (2338.HK): 491.5 million shares turnover, up 491.5% from average.

Most Short Sold Stocks

GOLDIN PROPERTY (283.HK): 69.0% of total shortsell turnover.
CARNIVAL GROUP (996.HK): 1,207.4 million shares turnover, up 1,207.4% from average.
SHENZHEN INVEST (604.HK): 3,402.3 million shares turnover, up 3,402.3% from average.
HI SUN TECHNOLOG (818.HK): 424.9 million shares turnover, up 424.9% from average.
WANT WANT CHINA (604.HK): 60.7% of own turnover.

External Market Conditions

US stocks ended mixed, with a stronger-than-expected May non-farm payrolls leading to speculation of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike.
ADRs rose, effectively pushing the HSI up 29 points.
Oil prices increased due to a 26-week decline in US drilling rigs.
Gold prices fell slightly, while silver and crude oil also declined.
Interest rates for US Treasuries rose, with the 2-year yield at 0.7166% and the 10-year at 2.4040%.

A-share Premium to H-share

ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057.HK): A-share premium of 319.0%.
SHENZHEN EXPRE-H (548.HK): A-share premium of 103.7%.
LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share premium of 311.2%.
CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919.HK): A-share premium of 205.7%.
CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): A-share premium of 28.4%.
PING AN-H (2318.HK): A-share premium of -2.4%.

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822.HK): Price: HK$17.56, 1D chg: -0.79%, 5D chg: 4.65%
ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823.HK): Price: HK$15.68, 1D chg: -1.63%, 5D chg: 3.43%
TRACKER FUND HK (2800.HK): Price: HK$27.60, 1D chg: -1.25%, 5D chg: -0.72%
HS H-SHARE ETF (2828.HK): Price: HK$140.70, 1D chg: -1.40%, 5D chg: -1.12%
CHINAAMC 300-HKD (3188.HK): Price: HK$64.00, 1D chg: -1.77%, 5D chg: 4.32%
CSI 300 CHINA (2827.HK): Price: HK$47.40, 1D chg: -0.42%, 5D chg: 3.61%
CHINAAMC 300-CNY (83188.HK): Price: HK$51.15, 1D chg: -2.01%, 5D chg: 2.20%
ISHARES CSI 300 (2846.HK): Price: HK$38.50, 1D chg: 0.52%, 5D chg: 12.41%
CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822.HK): Price: HK$14.04, 1D chg: -1.13%, 5D chg: 4.46%
CSOP SZSE ETF-HK (3147.HK): Price: HK$18.14, 1D chg: -2.26%, 5D chg: 7.21%
ABF-PAIF (2821.HK): Price: HK$119.45, 1D chg: 0.04%, 5D chg: N/A

Summary of Key Points

The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI have shown mixed performance, with potential for deeper corrections if they fall below key thresholds.
AIA is recommended as a safe harbor due to its low correlation with the Shanghai Composite and strong fundamentals.
The US market showed mixed results, with ADRs contributing positively to the HSI.
Oil and gold prices rose, while other commodities declined.
A-shares generally show a significant premium over H-shares.
The most traded ETFs include both HK and A-share focused funds, with mixed price movements.

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