20181015-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_Soybean_Growers_Face_Mounting_Storage_Issues_16页_209kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Oil Crops Outlook report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the USDA provides an analysis of the 2018/19 U.S. soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed production and market outlook. It also covers international developments, such as Canadian soybean production, Indian oilseed output, and Malaysian palm oil stocks. The report highlights the implications of weather patterns, storage issues, and export dynamics on the supply and demand of oil crops.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Production Forecast: The 2018/19 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at 4.69 billion bushels, which is 6% higher than the previous year.
Harvest Progress: As of October 7, only 32% of the U.S. soybean crop had been harvested, lagging behind the 5-year average of 36%.
Yield: The soybean yield increased slightly to 53.1 bushels per acre, up from the September forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre.
Beginning Stocks: The beginning stocks for 2018/19 are at an 11-year high of 438.1 million bushels.
Exports and Crush: Exports and crush are forecast at 2.06 billion and 2.07 billion bushels, respectively.
Season-Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are projected to reach an extraordinarily high 885 million bushels.
Storage Issues: The large supply and low prices may cause storage issues, with wet harvest conditions increasing the costs for maintaining crop quality.
Price Spread: An uncommonly large price spread between November 2018 and July 2019 futures contracts may help with storage.
Export Markets: The U.S. export market has shifted due to declining trade with China, with South American exporters filling the gap for now.

U.S. Canola and Sunflowerseed Outlook

Canola Production: The 2018/19 U.S. canola production is forecast at a record 3.6 billion pounds, driven by near-record acreage (1.99 million acres) and record yields (1,864 pounds per acre).
Sunflowerseed Production: U.S. sunflowerseed production is forecast to decrease by 10% to 1.93 billion pounds, due to a 7% reduction in sown acreage and lower yields.
Market Impact: The increase in canola supply may reduce U.S. canola imports to 1.26 billion pounds, down from 1.43 billion pounds in 2017/18.
Domestic Crush: The domestic crush is expected to increase by 15% to 4.44 billion pounds, due to the modest expansion in total canola supplies and lower prices.
Sunflowerseed Stocks: Beginning stocks for sunflowerseed are at 386 million pounds, a significant drop from the 590 million pounds in 2017/18, due to a decline in supply.

International Outlook

Canadian Soybean Production

Production Forecast: Canadian soybean production is forecast at 7.5 million metric tons, a modest decline from the 7.7 million metric tons in 2017/18.
Export Forecast: Exports are expected to rise to 5.5 million tons, up from 4.9 million tons in 2017/18, as U.S. shipments to China have declined.
Yield Increase: Despite a 13% reduction in harvested area, yields have improved, supporting the production increase.

Indian Oilseed Output

Soybean Production: Indian soybean production is forecast to increase slightly to 10.35 million metric tons, down from the previous forecast of 10.5 million metric tons.
Peanut Output: Indian peanut production is forecast to decrease by 1.05 million tons to 4.7 million tons, due to uneven rainfall distribution, low moisture levels, and lower yields.
Peanut Imports: Peanut imports are expected to decline by 300,000 tons to 3 million tons, with domestic use and exports also affected by the lower production.

Malaysian Palm Oil Outlook

Production: Malaysian palm oil production is forecast to increase to 20.5 million tons, up from 19.7 million tons in 2017/18, but down from last month's forecast.
Stocks: September-ending palm oil stocks reached an 8-month high of 2.54 million tons due to seasonal increases in production and weak exports.
Price Impact: The surplus has pressured prices to a 3-year low, but export tax reductions are expected to boost demand.
Stocks Outlook: A reduction in palm oil production in 2018/19 is expected to moderately tighten stocks, which may help stabilize prices.

Key Information

U.S. Soybean: The 2018/19 crop is expected to be the largest ever recorded, but harvest delays due to wet weather and cool temperatures may impact storage capacity and crop quality.
U.S. Canola: The record production and yields are expected to reduce imports and increase domestic crush.
U.S. Sunflowerseed: A significant decline in production is expected, with beginning stocks also lower than the previous year.
International Markets: Canadian soybean production is expected to support exports, while Indian oilseed output is affected by weather variability and market shifts.
Malaysian Palm Oil: Stocks are high, and prices are low, but export tax reductions may boost demand and reduce the surplus.

Summary Table

Crop	2018/19 Forecast (Bushels or Pounds)	Change from Previous Year	Notes
Soybeans	4.69 billion bushels	+6%	Record supply, storage challenges
Canola	3.6 billion pounds	Record	High production, lower imports
Sunflowerseed	1.93 billion pounds	-10%	Lower production, reduced area
Malaysian Palm Oil	20.5 million tons	+500,000 tons	High stocks, low prices, export tax cut

Conclusion

The 2018/19 oil crops outlook highlights a record U.S. soybean crop and canola production, but sunflowerseed is expected to decline. Wet weather and cool temperatures have delayed harvests and increased storage costs for soybeans. International markets are also impacted, with Canada and India showing mixed trends in production and Malaysia facing stock accumulation and price pressures. The overall supply and demand dynamics are expected to influence global trade and market prices throughout the year.