兰德-Americas-Strategy_233页_6mb

Summary of "America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch"

Core Content

This report analyzes the mismatch between the United States' National Defense Strategy (NDS) and its current military capacity, focusing on the challenges of deterring and countering aggression from Russia, China, North Korea, and violent extremist organizations. It emphasizes the need for strategic prioritization and investment in military capabilities to close the gaps between policy and available resources.

Main Objectives

• Identify the gaps between U.S. national security policy and military capacity.
• Propose a framework for prioritizing resource allocation.
• Suggest combinations of near-term investments, technical innovations, and geopolitical initiatives to reduce adversary opportunities.

Key Regions and Threats

1. Tier 1 Priorities

• Deter nuclear attack: The U.S. must maintain a reliable and effective nuclear counterstrike ability to deter state powers like Russia and North Korea.
  • Action Needed: Modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal and delivery systems (bombers, land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles).
• Defeat limited ballistic missile attacks: The U.S. needs a robust ballistic missile defense (BMD) system to counter limited strikes from North Korea and possibly Iran.
  • Action Needed: Improve and expand missile defense capabilities in the Korean theater and homeland.
• Preempt terror attacks with WMD: The U.S. must enhance intelligence and special operations to intercept weapons abroad and law enforcement to interdict threats at home.
  • Action Needed: Prepare for the possibility of seizing and securing nuclear facilities in case of a collapse of a rogue state like North Korea.

2. Tier 2 Priorities

• Deter Russian aggression in the Baltics: NATO and the U.S. must have credible forces to blunt an initial attack and surge reinforcements.
  • Action Needed: Return air and heavy ground units to Europe, modernize and pre-position equipment, and improve mobile air defenses, targeting capabilities, and area-effects weapons.
• Deter North Korean missile and artillery attacks: The U.S. and South Korea need to build credible counter-fire and counter-offensive capabilities.
  • Action Needed: Help South Korea strengthen its defenses, including counter-fire, air-ground counter-offensive, and noncombatant evacuation operations (NEO).
• Deter Chinese invasion of Taiwan: The U.S. must support Taiwan's "Blue A2/AD" defenses and improve its ability to reinforce and assist Taiwan in the event of an attack.
  • Action Needed: Help Taiwan develop interoperable systems and provide complementary capabilities like long-range anti-ship missiles.
• Counter Chinese coercion in the Western Pacific: The U.S. should assist Japan and the Philippines in building air, sea, and ground forces to counter Chinese military pressure.
  • Action Needed: Strengthen allied defenses, conduct combined-force exercises, and support initiatives that promote international law and oppose aggression.
• Deter Iranian aggression: The U.S. must help Persian Gulf partners build air, missile, and maritime defenses.
  • Action Needed: Strengthen partner capabilities and organize units to counter Iranian anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies.
• Defeat violent extremist organizations (VEOs): The U.S. must degrade VEOs and deny them opportunities to attack.
  • Action Needed: Continue troop deployments, shift from combat forces to security force assistance brigades, and deter state sponsorship of VEOs.

3. Tier 3 Priorities

• Counter Chinese coercion in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific: The U.S. should support its allies in developing anti-ship, anti-air, and surface-to-surface missile systems.
• Counter Iranian aggression: Assist allies in developing security capabilities.
• Defeat VEOs: Maintain a level of troop presence to counter threats like ISIS, al Qaeda, and Taliban-allied groups.

Budget Constraints

• The U.S. military budget increased from $510 billion in FY2017 to $582.3 billion in FY2018.
• To meet the demands of the NDS, the budget would need to grow to $698 billion by FY2027 in constant FY2018 dollars.
• A 2% annual real growth in the FY2018 budget would be sufficient for nuclear modernization and conventional force expansion.
• A 3% growth rate would cover overseas contingency operations (OCO), provided costs do not increase further.
• The current funding level is significantly lower than the Cold War and Reagan-era defense spending as a percentage of GDP.

Modernization Investments

• Nuclear Deterrent and Missile Defense: These are the top priorities for modernization.
• Conventional Forces: The Trump administration seeks to modernize and expand conventional forces, but future budgets may not support all of these improvements.
• Near-Term Capabilities: Additional investments are needed to make existing forces capable of handling Tier 2 missions.
• Technical Innovations: The development of breakthrough technologies and area-effects weapons is crucial.
• Geopolitical Initiatives: The U.S. should continue and expand defense cooperation with partners, reaffirm security commitments, and support initiatives that promote international norms and reduce tensions with China.

Recommendations

• Prioritize investments in nuclear deterrence and missile defense.
• Focus on building credible forces to deter and respond to aggression in key regions.
• Enhance intelligence, special operations, and law enforcement capabilities to counter WMD threats.
• Support allies and partners in developing their defense capacities.
• Encourage sustainable troop deployments and shift to more efficient security force assistance models.
• Ensure the U.S. can reinforce and assist Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
• Promote initiatives that shape the geopolitical balance in favor of the U.S. and its allies.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the U.S. faces significant challenges in aligning its national security strategy with its military resources. While the NDS outlines a broad range of priorities, the current budget and capabilities are insufficient to fully address these threats. Strategic prioritization and targeted investments are essential to close the strategy-resource gap and ensure the U.S. can effectively deter and respond to aggression in key regions.