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AMERICA'S SECURITY DEFICIT Summary

Core Content

This report, part of the RAND Corporation's Strategic Rethink series, addresses the growing mismatch between U.S. national security strategy and the available defense resources in a complex and evolving global landscape. It examines the challenges posed by the resurgence of belligerent Russia, the rise of violent extremist groups like ISIS, the expansion of China's military power, and the ongoing instability in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East. The report also highlights the need for a more adaptive and resource-efficient defense posture in response to these threats.

Main Challenges

• Russia's Military Aggression: Russia's actions in Ukraine and its assertiveness in the Baltic region have shifted the security dynamics in Europe. The U.S. and NATO are struggling to maintain a credible deterrent due to insufficient readiness and response capabilities.

• China's Military Buildup: China's rapid military modernization and increased assertiveness in the South China Sea and East Asia have created a significant A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) threat to U.S. forces. This necessitates new investments in platforms, weapons, and infrastructure to counter Chinese capabilities.

• Terrorist Threats: The rise of Salafi-jihadist groups, including ISIS and al Qaeda, has led to a decentralized and persistent terrorist threat across multiple regions. These groups are increasingly capable of conducting attacks both abroad and in the U.S.

Key Points

Strategic Rethink

• The report is the second in a series examining U.S. national security strategy for the current and next administrations.
• It emphasizes the need to align defense strategy with current and emerging threats, which include Russia, China, and violent extremist organizations.

Defense Posture and Readiness

• The U.S. defense strategy, particularly in Europe, is not keeping pace with the real-world demands of security threats.
• A robust defense posture in Europe would require prepositioning heavy forces and critical infrastructure in the Baltic region to deter Russian aggression effectively.

A2/AD Threat in East Asia

• The U.S. faces a significant A2/AD challenge from China, which is developing advanced long-range strike capabilities and integrated air defenses.
• To counter this, the U.S. must invest in new concepts for power projection, including stealth platforms, standoff weapons, and improved operational concepts for rapid response and suppression of enemy defenses.

Counterterrorist Operations

• The U.S. must maintain a continuous counterterrorism campaign against Salafi-jihadist groups, both in the Middle East and globally.
• This involves two types of operations: indirect (supporting partner forces) and direct (precision strikes on terrorist networks).
• The number of U.S. special operations forces has increased significantly, and their capabilities must be sustained and enhanced with better training and equipment.

Budgetary Constraints

• The U.S. defense budget is constrained by the Budget Control Act, which limits funding for the Department of Defense (DoD).
• Despite the growing security demands, Congress has not approved many cost-saving measures proposed by the DoD, leading to significant unanticipated expenses.
• The report calls for a reevaluation of defense funding levels to meet new and evolving threats.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for the U.S. to adapt its defense strategy and resources to the current security environment. It recommends a shift in focus toward enhancing readiness, modernizing military capabilities, and investing in new concepts and technologies to counter both state and non-state threats. These recommendations are aimed at ensuring that the U.S. can maintain its global security leadership in the face of a more complex and challenging world.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Estimated Number of Salafi Jihadists, 1988-2013
• Figure 2: Number of Attacks by al Qaeda and Affiliates, 2007-2013
• Table 1: CBO Estimates of Expenditures on Nuclear Systems, 2014-2023
• Table 2: Illustrative Consequences of Alternative DoD Funding Scenarios

Funding and Support

• The report is part of the RAND Corporation's Investment in People and Ideas program.
• It was supported by philanthropic contributions and independent research and development provisions from DoD contracts.
• Special appreciation is given to the Hauser Foundation and Rita Hauser for their support in initiating the project.

Acknowledgments

• The authors thank Dick Solomon and Jim Dobbins for their leadership in the Strategic Rethink initiative.
• They also acknowledge Sarah Harting for her research support and the contributions of Peter Wilson, Robert Martinage, Sonni Efron, and Bryce Schoenborn.