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MLAR Statistics Summary: Residential Loans to Individuals

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of residential loans to individuals, categorized into regulated and non-regulated. It includes statistical data on new business volumes, loan characteristics, arrears and provisions, and loan book positions across various quarters from 2007 to 2013. The data is not seasonally adjusted, and the summaries are structured into three main tables (Summary 1, Summary 2, and Summary 3), each covering different aspects of the loan portfolio.

Main Tables and Key Information

Table 1: New Business Volumes

• Gross Advances (in £ millions):

  • 2007: Q1 = 86,432, Q2 = 96,695, Q3 = 101,980, Q4 = 86,609
  • 2008: Q1 = 73,365, Q2 = 71,630, Q3 = 60,584
  • Trend: Gross advances show a peak in 2007 Q3, followed by a decline in 2008, and a gradual increase in subsequent years.

• Net Advances (in £ millions):

  • 2007: Q1 = 33,434, Q2 = 37,319, Q3 = 39,641, Q4 = 29,671
  • 2008: Q1 = 24,073, Q2 = 21,747, Q3 = 13,814
  • Trend: Net advances are consistently lower than gross advances, with a significant drop in 2008 Q3.

• New Commitments (in £ millions):

  • 2007: Q1 = 92,315, Q2 = 107,705, Q3 = 101,263, Q4 = 75,797
  • 2008: Q1 = 74,749, Q2 = 66,852, Q3 = 49,769
  • Trend: New commitments show a fluctuating pattern, with a notable decline in 2008 Q3.

Table 2: New Business Characteristics

• Interest Rates:

  • Fixed Rate Loans: Average rates increased slightly from 5.35% in 2007 Q1 to 6.12% in 2007 Q4, then declined to 5.83% in 2008 Q4.
  • Variable Rate Loans: Average rates rose from 5.88% in 2007 Q1 to 6.25% in 2007 Q3, then decreased to 5.83% in 2008 Q4.
  • All Loans: Overall average rates increased from 5.53% in 2007 Q1 to 6.11% in 2007 Q4, then declined slightly in 2008.

• Loan Purpose:

  • House Purchase: Dominated new business, with a share of 50.80% in 2007 Q1 and 35.25% in 2008 Q1.
  • Remortgage: Consistently high, with a share of 41.17% in 2007 Q1 and 54.68% in 2007 Q3.
  • Other: Lower proportion, but showed some increase in 2007 Q3.

• Loan to Value (LTV):

  • Loans with LTV under 75% were the most common, with a share of 48.62% in 2007 Q1 and 54.66% in 2008 Q1.
  • LTV over 95% decreased from 6.06% in 2007 Q4 to 4.17% in 2008 Q1.

• Credit History:

  • A small percentage of loans (around 3.59%) had an impaired credit history in 2007 Q1, decreasing to 2.40% in 2008 Q2.
  • Most loans (96.41% in 2007 Q1) had no impaired credit history.

Table 3: Arrears & Provisions

• Arrears Cases (as % of total loan balances):

  • 1.5 < 2.5% in arrears: 0.76% in 2007 Q1, rising to 1.10% in 2007 Q4.
  • 2.5 < 5% in arrears: 0.73% in 2007 Q1, increasing to 1.17% in 2007 Q4.
  • 5 < 7.5% in arrears: 0.23% in 2007 Q1, rising to 0.42% in 2007 Q4.
  • Over 10% in arrears: 0.10% in 2007 Q1, increasing to 0.25% in 2007 Q4.
  • First Time Buyers: A higher proportion of arrears in 2007 Q4 (0.34%) compared to 2007 Q1 (0.14%).

• Total Arrears (as % of total loan balances):

  • Increased from 2.06% in 2007 Q1 to 3.37% in 2007 Q4.
  • Continued to rise in 2008 and beyond, with a peak of 3.37% in 2007 Q4 and 3.55% in 2010 Q1.

• Possession Cases:

  • New Possessions: Increased from 6,472 in 2007 Q4 to 13,462 in 2009 Q1.
  • Possessions Sold: Ranged from 5,350 in 2007 Q4 to 11,708 in 2009 Q1.
  • Stock of Possessions: Grew from 12,143 in 2007 Q4 to 28,241 in 2009 Q1.

Key Notes

• Regulated vs. Non-regulated Loans: The data is split between regulated and non-regulated loans, with non-regulated loans often reported separately due to different monitoring and reporting practices.
• Loan Accounts: The "number of loan accounts" is influenced by how loans are categorized, particularly for second and subsequent charge loans, which are treated as separate accounts.
• Arrears Reporting Basis: The arrears figures are higher than those published by CML due to differences in how loans are reported, especially regarding further advances and multiple charge loans.
• Interest Rate Trends: Fixed rates increased from 2007 to 2008, while variable rates remained relatively stable, with overall average rates fluctuating slightly over the period.
• LTV Trends: Loans with lower LTVs were more common, but the share of high LTV loans (over 95%) decreased significantly in 2008.

Summary of Trends

• New Business: Gross and net advances peaked in 2007 Q3 and then declined, with a recovery in later years.
• Loan Purpose: House purchase remained the largest share of new business, while remortgage and other categories showed variability.
• Arrears and Possessions: Arrears increased significantly in 2007, with a continued rise into 2008 and beyond, and possession cases also rose, particularly in 2009.
• Interest Rates: Fixed rates increased slightly, while variable rates showed a more stable trend.
• Credit Risk: The proportion of loans with impaired credit history remained low, but arrears rates increased, indicating a growing concern over loan performance.

Conclusion

The MLAR statistics provide a comprehensive overview of residential lending to individuals, highlighting the dynamics of new business, interest rate trends, loan characteristics, and credit risk. The data shows a notable increase in arrears and possession cases during 2007 and 2008, with a slight stabilization in later years. The reporting methodology differs between regulated and non-regulated loans, and the figures are not seasonally adjusted, which may affect the interpretation of trends over time.