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2016 Q3 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics Summary

Core Content Overview

This document presents the mortgage lending statistics for the United Kingdom for the third quarter of 2016, including data on loan amounts, new business volumes, interest rate trends, and arrears and possession cases. The statistics are derived from the Mortgage Lenders & Administrators Return (MLAR) and cover both regulated and non-regulated residential loans.

Key Financial Statistics

• Total Residential Loan Amounts Outstanding: £1,330.8 billion in Q3 2016, an increase of 1.1% compared to Q2 2016 and 3.8% over the past four quarters.
• Regulated Loans: £1,051.6 billion, accounting for 79.0% of the total. This proportion has remained constant since Q4 2013.
• Non-regulated Loans: Increased by £3.6 billion compared to Q2 2016 and £11.0 billion compared to Q3 2015, reaching £279.2 billion.
• Securitised Balances: £79.8 billion in Q3 2016, up 4.4% from Q2 2016. As a proportion of total, securitised loans rose to 6.0%.
• Unsecuritised Balances: £1,251.0 billion in Q3 2016, up 0.9% from Q2 2016.

New Business Volumes

• Gross Advances: £64.5 billion in Q3 2016, up 11.1% from Q2 2016 and 3.9% from Q3 2015.
• Net Advances: £13.1 billion in Q3 2016, down 3.9% compared to Q3 2015.
• New Commitments: £61.0 billion in Q3 2016, a decrease of 10.4% from Q2 2016 and 4.8% from Q3 2015.
• Percentage of Advances to Borrowers with Impaired Credit: Decreased by 1 basis point to 0.25% in Q3 2016.

Interest Rate Trends

• Proportion of Gross Advances at Fixed Rates: Remained at 82.3% in Q3 2016.
• Proportion of Balances Outstanding at Fixed Rates: Increased by 1.1 percentage points to 52.1% in Q3 2016.
• Overall Average Interest Rate on Gross Advances: Decreased by 8 bps to 2.47%, the lowest since 2007.
  • Fixed rate decreased by 7 bps to 2.53%.
  • Variable rate decreased by 14 bps to 2.21%.
• Overall Average Interest Rate on Total Amounts Outstanding: Decreased by 14 bps to 2.84%, the lowest since 2007.
  • Fixed rate decreased by 9 bps to 2.90%.
  • Variable rate decreased by 19 bps to 2.78%.

Lending Purpose Breakdown

• House Purchase: 65.6% of gross advances in Q3 2016, up 2.6 percentage points from Q2 2016.
• First Time Buyers (FTBs): 22.0% of total lending, remaining constant from Q2 2016.
• Buy-to-Let (BTL): 12.8% of total lending, down from 13.1% in Q2 2016.
• Remortgage: 28.5% of gross advances, down from 30.0% in Q2 2016.
• Other New Lending: 3.0% of gross advances, down from 3.8% in Q2 2016.

Lending Criteria

• Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio:
  • LTV over 90% increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%.
  • LTV over 90% and loan-to-income multiple over 3.5x (single income) or 2.75x (joint income) increased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.3%.
• Income Multiple:
  • Borrowers with a single income multiple over 4.00x increased to 10.6%.
  • Borrowers with a joint income multiple over 3.00x increased to 32.4%.

Arrears and Possessions

• New Arrears Cases: 20,424 in Q3 2016, down 6.4% from Q3 2015.
• Value of New Arrears: £34 million, a 6.4% decrease from Q3 2015.
• Total Arrears Cases: Increased to 229,061 in Q3 2016, up 5.2% from Q2 2016.
• Arrears as % of Total Loan Balances: Remained constant at 1.34%.
• Possession Cases:
  • New possession cases: 2,133 in Q3 2016, down 6.5% from Q2 2016.
  • Possession sales: 2,201 in Q3 2016, down 7.6% from Q2 2016.
  • Stocks of possessions: 4,086 in Q3 2016, the lowest since 2007.
  • Arrears capitalised: £15 million on 3,444 accounts, up 14.7% from Q2 2016.

Additional Notes

• Regulated vs. Non-regulated Loans: Regulated loans are secured by a first charge on residential property for the borrower or a close relative. From 21 March 2016, second charge lending is included in regulated lending.
• Securitisation: Lenders may securitise loans, but those used as collateral for Bank of England liquidity schemes remain unsecuritised.
• Data Sources and Definitions:
  • MLAR data are collected from around 340 regulated lenders.
  • Data may be restated due to revisions and are not seasonally adjusted.
  • Detailed data tables are available for further analysis.
  • Arrears are defined as overdue payments of 1.5% or more of the loan balance.
  • Impaired credit includes arrears of three months or more, CCJs over £500, or bankruptcy/IVA within three years.

Summary of Trends

• Loan Growth: Total residential loan amounts increased slightly, with regulated loans maintaining a stable share.
• Interest Rates: Both fixed and variable rates declined, contributing to the lowest average rates since 2007.
• Lending Purpose: House purchase remained the largest category, while BTL and remortgages saw modest declines.
• Arrears and Possessions: Arrears decreased in value but increased in number, with possession cases at a historic low.