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报告摘要

MLAR Statistics: June 2015 Edition Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of residential loans to individuals in the UK for the period covering 2013 to Q1 2015, focusing on balances on and off balance sheet, business flows, interest rate analysis, income multiple and LTV (Loan-to-Value), and loan purpose. The data is not seasonally adjusted and is categorized into regulated and non-regulated sectors.

Main Tables and Their Descriptions

1.11 Residential Loans to Individuals: Balances on and Off Balance Sheet

Total Residential Lending (Regulated and Non-regulated):
- Unsecuritised: Increased from £1,131,903 million in Q4 2013 to £1,168,502 million in Q1 2015.
- Securitised: Decreased from £106,436 million in Q4 2013 to £91,083 million in Q1 2015.
- Total: Rose from £1,238,340 million in Q4 2013 to £1,259,585 million in Q1 2015.
Regulated Sector:
- Unsecuritised: Increased from £897,795 million in Q4 2013 to £931,286 million in Q1 2015.
- Securitised: Decreased from £78,342 million in Q4 2013 to £64,943 million in Q1 2015.
- Sub Total: Increased from £976,137 million in Q4 2013 to £996,229 million in Q1 2015.
Non-regulated Sector:
- Unsecuritised: Increased from £234,108 million in Q4 2013 to £237,216 million in Q1 2015.
- Securitised: Decreased from £28,095 million in Q4 2013 to £26,141 million in Q1 2015.
- Sub Total: Increased from £262,203 million in Q4 2013 to £263,356 million in Q1 2015.

1.21 Residential Loans to Individuals: Business Flows

Regulated Sector:
- Gross Advances: Decreased from £44,318 million in Q4 2013 to £42,738 million in Q1 2015.
- Net Advances: Decreased from £9,116 million in Q4 2013 to £7,283 million in Q1 2015.
- New Commitments: Decreased from £43,335 million in Q4 2013 to £38,006 million in Q1 2015.
- Loans (excluding overdrafts): Increased from £897,795 million in Q4 2013 to £931,286 million in Q1 2015.
- Commitments Stock: Decreased from £56,037 million in Q4 2013 to £54,505 million in Q1 2015.
- Overdraft Balances: Decreased from £1,264 million in Q4 2013 to £1,086 million in Q1 2015.
- Aggregate of Credit Limits: Decreased from £1,750 million in Q4 2013 to £1,525 million in Q1 2015.
Non-regulated Sector:
- Gross Advances: Increased from £7,156 million in Q4 2013 to £8,608 million in Q1 2015.
- Net Advances: Increased from -£120 million in Q4 2013 to £787 million in Q1 2015.
- New Commitments: Increased from £6,981 million in Q4 2013 to £8,273 million in Q1 2015.
- Loans (excluding overdrafts): Increased from £234,108 million in Q4 2013 to £237,216 million in Q1 2015.
- Commitments Stock: Decreased from £15,013 million in Q4 2013 to £15,123 million in Q1 2015.
- Overdraft Balances: Decreased from £306 million in Q4 2013 to £246 million in Q1 2015.
- Aggregate of Credit Limits: Decreased from £484 million in Q4 2013 to £400 million in Q1 2015.
All (Regulated + Non-regulated) Sector:
- Gross Advances: Increased from £51,473 million in Q4 2013 to £51,346 million in Q1 2015.
- Net Advances: Increased from £8,997 million in Q4 2013 to £8,071 million in Q1 2015.
- New Commitments: Decreased from £50,316 million in Q4 2013 to £46,279 million in Q1 2015.
- Loans (excluding overdrafts): Increased from £1,131,903 million in Q4 2013 to £1,168,502 million in Q1 2015.
- Commitments Stock: Decreased from £71,050 million in Q4 2013 to £69,628 million in Q1 2015.
- Overdraft Balances: Decreased from £1,570 million in Q4 2013 to £1,332 million in Q1 2015.
- Aggregate of Credit Limits: Decreased from £2,234 million in Q4 2013 to £1,925 million in Q1 2015.

1.22 Residential Loans to Individuals: Interest Rate Analysis

Regulated Sector:
- Percentage of business at fixed rates:
  - Gross Advances: Increased from 82.11% in Q4 2013 to 83.30% in Q1 2015.
  - Balances Outstanding: Increased from 37.24% in Q4 2013 to 45.81% in Q1 2015.
- Percentage of business above Bank Rate:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Less than 2%: Decreased from 28.68% to 28.61%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 41.09% to 41.11%.
    - 3–4%: Increased from 20.63% to 19.33%.
    - 4% or more: Increased from 9.60% to 11.04%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Less than 2%: Increased from 20.94% to 25.30%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 33.48% to 35.24%.
    - 3–4%: Increased from 26.16% to 23.97%.
    - 4% or more: Decreased from 19.43% to 15.49%.
- Weighted Average Interest Rates:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Fixed: Increased from 3.22% to 3.31%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 2.74% to 2.47%.
    - All: Increased from 3.14% to 3.17%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Fixed: Decreased from 3.81% to 3.42%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 3.09% to 3.05%.
    - All: Decreased from 3.36% to 3.22%.
Non-regulated Sector:
- Percentage of business at fixed rates:
  - Gross Advances: Increased from 68.82% in Q4 2013 to 76.74% in Q1 2015.
  - Balances Outstanding: Increased from 16.23% in Q4 2013 to 23.68% in Q1 2015.
- Percentage of business above Bank Rate:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Less than 2%: Increased from 3.30% to 4.75%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 23.56% to 39.32%.
    - 3–4%: Decreased from 64.84% to 46.14%.
    - 4% or more: Increased from 8.30% to 9.79%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Less than 2%: Increased from 33.80% to 30.95%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 33.48% to 23.01%.
    - 3–4%: Increased from 26.16% to 23.29%.
    - 4% or more: Decreased from 19.43% to 15.49%.
- Weighted Average Interest Rates:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Fixed: Decreased from 3.91% to 3.70%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 3.90% to 3.68%.
    - All: Decreased from 3.90% to 3.70%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Fixed: Decreased from 4.22% to 3.90%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 3.09% to 3.05%.
    - All: Decreased from 3.38% to 3.36%.
All (Regulated + Non-regulated) Sector:
- Percentage of business at fixed rates:
  - Gross Advances: Increased from 80.26% in Q4 2013 to 82.20% in Q1 2015.
  - Balances Outstanding: Increased from 32.89% in Q4 2013 to 41.32% in Q1 2015.
- Percentage of business above Bank Rate:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Less than 2%: Increased from 25.15% to 24.61%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 38.65% to 40.74%.
    - 3–4%: Increased from 26.77% to 23.82%.
    - 4% or more: Decreased from 9.42% to 10.83%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Less than 2%: Increased from 23.60% to 26.45%.
    - 2–3%: Increased from 30.76% to 32.76%.
    - 3–4%: Increased from 19.78% to 23.97%.
    - 4% or more: Decreased from 19.43% to 15.49%.
- Weighted Average Interest Rates:
  - Gross Advances:
    - Fixed: Increased from 3.30% to 3.37%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 2.99% to 2.74%.
    - All: Decreased from 3.25% to 3.26%.
  - Balances Outstanding:
    - Fixed: Decreased from 3.85% to 3.42%.
    - Variable: Decreased from 3.22% to 3.05%.
    - All: Decreased from 3.36% to 3.22%.

1.31 Residential Loans to Individuals: Income Multiple and LTV

Regulated Sector:
- Income Multiple (Single):
  - Less than 2.50: Decreased from 9.82% to 9.19%.
  - 2.50–3.00: Decreased from 4.89% to 4.69%.
  - 3.00–3.50: Decreased from 6.30% to 5.96%.
  - 3.50–4.00: Decreased from 6.34% to 6.03%.
  - 4.00 or over: Decreased from 13.02% to 10.94%.
  - Other: Decreased from 1.92% to 1.95%.
  - Total on Single Income: Decreased from 42.30% to 38.76%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 5.30% to 0.39%.
- Joint Income:
  - Less than 2.00: Decreased from 8.65% to 9.90%.
  - 2.00–2.50: Increased from 4.49% to 5.78%.
  - 2.50–2.75: Increased from 19.02% to 23.97%.
  - 2.75–3.00: Increased from 19.62% to 23.83%.
  - 3.00 or over: Increased from 31.02% to 31.01%.
  - Total on Joint Income: Increased from 57.70% to 61.24%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 6.10% to 0.36%.
- LTV:
  - <= 75%: Increased from 61.01% to 59.81%.
  - Over 75–90%: Decreased from 36.57% to 35.83%.
  - Over 90–95%: Decreased from 2.00% to 0.29%.
  - Over 95%: Increased from 0.39% to 0.59%.
  - Total: Maintained at 100% across all periods.
Non-regulated Sector:
- Income Multiple (Single):
  - Less than 2.50: Decreased from 5.32% to 4.82%.
  - 2.50–3.00: Decreased from 1.03% to 1.01%.
  - 3.00–3.50: Decreased from 0.96% to 0.82%.
  - 3.50–4.00: Decreased from 0.70% to 0.59%.
  - 4.00 or over: Increased from 2.87% to 3.34%.
  - Total on Single Income: Decreased from 87.32% to 86.01%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 2.18% to 1.02%.
- Joint Income:
  - Less than 2.00: Decreased from 3.68% to 3.23%.
  - 2.00–2.50: Decreased from 1.11% to 1.01%.
  - 2.50–2.75: Increased from 0.43% to 0.59%.
  - 2.75–3.00: Increased from 0.41% to 0.41%.
  - 3.00 or over: Increased from 1.83% to 2.34%.
  - Total on Joint Income: Increased from 12.68% to 13.99%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 0.56% to 0.16%.
- LTV:
  - <= 75%: Increased from 86.83% to 88.81%.
  - Over 75–90%: Decreased from 12.73% to 10.56%.
  - Over 90–95%: Decreased from 0.05% to 0.04%.
  - Over 95%: Increased from 0.39% to 0.59%.
  - Total: Maintained at 100% across all periods.
All (Regulated + Non-regulated) Sector:
- Income Multiple (Single):
  - Less than 2.50: Decreased from 9.20% to 8.45%.
  - 2.50–3.00: Decreased from 4.36% to 4.07%.
  - 3.00–3.50: Decreased from 5.56% to 5.11%.
  - 3.50–4.00: Decreased from 5.55% to 5.16%.
  - 4.00 or over: Increased from 11.61% to 9.67%.
  - Total on Single Income: Decreased from 48.56% to 46.68%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 4.86% to 0.49%.
- Joint Income:
  - Less than 2.00: Decreased from 5.56% to 5.11%.
  - 2.00–2.50: Decreased from 5.31% to 5.11%.
  - 2.50–2.75: Increased from 5.11% to 5.11%.
  - 2.75–3.00: Increased from 5.13% to 5.16%.
  - 3.00 or over: Increased from 11.88% to 9.67%.
  - Total on Joint Income: Increased from 51.44% to 53.32%.
  - Not Evidenced: Decreased from 12.28% to 14.21%.

Key Insights

Loan Growth: Overall residential lending to individuals increased throughout the period, with unsecuritised loans showing the most growth.
Interest Rates: There was a trend of increasing fixed-rate loans and decreasing variable-rate loans across all sectors.
LTV Trends: The proportion of loans with LTV <= 75% increased slightly, while higher LTV loans decreased, indicating a shift towards more conservative lending practices.
Income Multiple: A higher proportion of loans were issued to individuals with higher income multiples, especially in the non-regulated sector.
Not Evidenced Loans: The percentage of not evidenced loans decreased across all sectors, suggesting better documentation and compliance practices.

Conclusion

The June 2015 edition of MLAR Statistics highlights a steady increase in residential lending to individuals, particularly in the unsecuritised segment. Interest rates showed a preference for fixed rates, while variable rates decreased. LTV and income multiple data reflect a shift towards more conservative lending, with higher income multiples becoming more common. The non-regulated sector demonstrated more volatility in business flows, while the regulated sector showed a more stable trend. Overall, the data suggests a more cautious lending environment in the latter half of 2015.