全球发展中心-森林碳市场：陷阱与机遇（英）-2023.11-41页_2mb

报告摘要

Forest-based carbon markets could generate significant income, with market value projected to increase from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$25 billion annually by 2030 under a high-carbon-price scenario.
Tropical forests play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, contributing up to 18% of needed climate targets by avoiding deforestation and enhancing carbon sequestration.

Pitfalls include negative externalities such as population displacement, biodiversity loss, increased food prices, and ecosystem degradation if proper governance is lacking.
Carbon credit projects often face issues with quality and integrity, including overestimated emission reductions due to flawed baseline measurements, leakage, and permanence risks.
Revenue concentrations occur in high-value-added upstream/downstream activities, limiting local income and disadvantaging rural communities.

Compliance markets currently dominate (e.g., EU/US ETS), with compliance values reaching ~US$968 billion in 2022, while voluntary markets are smaller (~US$1.7 billion) but growing rapidly.
Forest-specific voluntary markets surpassed US$1.3 billion in 2021, driven by demand for nature-based credits, though prices vary widely by region and project.

Establish National Carbon Federations to ensure equitable revenue sharing, community involvement, and robust governance to prevent market failures and social conflicts.
Adopt jurisdictional approaches over project-based ones to address leakage, permanence risks, and broader ecosystem benefits.
Strengthen domestic industrial policies, including labor training, access to long-term capital, and research and development to capture high-value market segments.

Carbon markets must integrate biodiversity safeguards and account for biophysical externalities (e.g., climate regulation, water cycles) overreliance on carbon tunnel vision risks unintended environmental damage.
Tropical countries face contrasting impacts: low-carbon prices may leave reforestation projects financially unviable, unless coupled with opportunity cost analyses that include ecosystem values.

Carbon credit demand may shift land markets, increasing competition between conservation/afforestation and agriculture/timber industries.
Industrialization of carbon markets risks triggering a "Green Dutch Disease," weakening other economic sectors unless paired with industrial policies to recycle revenues through public goods and services.

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