IMF-极端天气事件_农业产出和保险_来自南美洲的证据（英）-2025.3_31页_1mb

Introduction: This paper analyzes the impact of extreme weather events, specifically droughts, on agricultural output in South America, focusing on soy production, and evaluates the role of agricultural insurance in mitigating these effects. Using satellite and weather data, it finds significant yield losses and low insurance penetration, recommending strategies for broader insurance adoption.

Methodology: The study utilizes high-frequency satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for agricultural yield and the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to measure droughts. A dataset from countries like Brazil is harmonized to country level for analysis, supported by a calibrated structural model.

Key Findings: Droughts reduce soy yields significantly across countries, with impacts ranging from 1-2% in Brazil and Argentina to 8-19% in Uruguay and Paraguay. Insurance penetration is low due to barriers like high costs and limited access. Expanding insurance could boost Total Factor Productivity (TFP) by 7.5% in Paraguay, 2.7% in Brazil, and 3.6% in Uruguay.

Policy Recommendations: Foster public-private partnerships, improve data availability for insurers, strengthen regulations, and reduce costs through technology. Tailor insurance to address regional risks and enhance farmer resilience against climate shocks.