2021-10-19-牛津经济研究院-Sweden_Growth_seen_at_4.1_in_2021_and_3.2_in_2022,_with_near-term_risks_rising_1页_120kb

Sweden Economic Forecast Summary

• GDP Growth: Growth forecast lowered to 4.1% for 2021 due to an August economic setback, with 2022 projected at 3.2%, offset by supply-chain issues and energy price hikes.
• Economic Indicators: August saw a 3.8% monthly GDP decline, impacting private consumption and industrial output, leading to a revised Q3 growth forecast of 1.4%.
• Employment: Unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in September but is expected to recover to pre-crisis levels (below 7%) by mid-2022, with labor shortages emerging in certain sectors.
• Inflation: Consumer inflation surged to 2.5% y/y in September, primarily driven by electricity prices, while core inflation remains low at 1.5%. Full-year inflation forecast revised up to 2.0%.
• Fiscal Policy: The draft budget may tighten due to structural deficit, with potential monetary policy adjustments including bank balance sheet reduction, though interest rates are expected to stay near zero until 2023.
• Additional Trends: Domestic demand and industrial production show resilience but face challenges, with inflation likely peaking near 3% late in 2021 before moderating.