2008年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_Access_Policy_in_the_Credit_Tranches_and_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_the_Poverty_Reduction_and_Growth_Facility_and_Exceptional_Access_Policy_24页_342kb

Summary of IMF Access Policy Review (2005-2007)

I. Introduction

This document reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) access policy under its main financing facilities, including the General Resources Account (GRA) and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), as well as the Exceptional Access Policy. The review responds to the Board's request for a periodic assessment of the rules and practices governing the amount of financing available to members. The 2005 review concluded that the access limits and criteria were appropriate, and no significant changes were needed. The exceptional access framework was also considered broadly appropriate, though not all exceptional access cases met the four substantive criteria.

II. Economic Environment and Fund Financing Use (2005-2007)

A. Credit Tranches Access

• Middle-income members have shown a modest need for Fund financing, largely due to improved macroeconomic conditions and access to private capital.
• These members have mostly covered their financing needs through market borrowing at historically low risk premia.
• Precautionary arrangements have become a key objective for many members, especially to signal commitment to credible policies and smooth access to private capital.
• The number of new arrangements under the GRA has dropped to the lowest level since 1954, with only 11 approved between 2005 and 2007.
• Only one extended arrangement was approved during this period, and no exceptional access arrangements were requested in 2006–07.
• The average annual access under the GRA was below historical levels, with most members accessing at low levels (30% of quota), compared to 41% in 1995–2004.
• The Supplemental Reserve Facility (SRF) has not been used since 2002.

B. PRGF Arrangements

• Low-income countries (LICs) have experienced robust and sustained growth, aided by strong commodity demand and improved macroeconomic policies.
• PRGF arrangements continue to be in high demand, playing a critical role in supporting policy and institutional reforms, as well as absorbing aid and private inflows.
• The number of PRGF arrangements approved remained steady from 2005–2006 but declined in 2007, partly due to the use of the Policy Support Instrument (PSI).
• The average three-year access under PRGF fell from 78% of quota in 1995–2004 to 39% in 2005–2007.
• Total PRGF loans outstanding stood at SDR 3.7 billion at end-2007, the lowest since 1995, due to debt relief under the MDRI.
• The Exogenous Shocks Facility has not been utilized by any member to date.

III. Global Prospects and Implications for Fund Financing

A. Global Prospects

• The global economy experienced rapid growth in 2007, but financial market turbulence increased downside risks.
• Emerging markets and developing countries were less affected by the U.S. subprime crisis.
• The Fund expects continued growth in 2008, though at a more moderate pace.
• Financial globalization and deepening markets have increased the potential for risks to spread quickly across borders.

B. Demand for Fund Resources – Empirical Assessments

• Historical demand for Fund resources was heavily influenced by global economic and financial events, such as oil crises, debt crises, and structural changes.
• Recent studies indicate a fundamental downward shift in the demand for Fund resources, with projections of SDR 8 billion over the next five years.
• These models, while useful, have limited predictive power, especially in the face of tail events and varying levels of country resilience.
• The Fund's portfolio is increasingly dominated by a few large arrangements, which affects the stability of econometric models.
• A new liquidity support instrument for market access countries is under consideration, which may influence future demand.

C. Fund's Liquidity

• The Fund's liquidity is currently satisfactory, with a one-year forward commitment capacity of SDR 127.7 billion as of end-2007.
• This is more than double the level from the last review.
• Additional liquidity of SDR 34 billion is available through the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) and General Arrangements to Borrow (GAB).
• Outstanding GRA credit stood at SDR 6.0 billion at end-2007.

IV. Recommendations for Access Policy

• The current access limits and criteria are considered appropriate to meet members' needs for concessional and non-concessional financing within normal limits.
• The exceptional access framework remains broadly appropriate, but not all exceptional access decisions have met the four substantive criteria.
• Procedural strengthening is recommended, including early consultation with the Board, ex-post evaluations, and explicit discussions of exit strategies and alternative forecast scenarios.
• A strong presumption exists to use SRF resources in capital account crises where conditions apply.
• For members with per capita GDP above 75% of the IDA cutoff limit or significant non-concessional borrowing, a blended PRGF/EFF approach is presumed.

V. Issues for Discussion

• The long-term sustainability of the current access policy and the potential for a permanent shift in demand.
• The role of the Fund in a more integrated and resilient global financial system.
• The impact of new liquidity instruments on the Fund's financing needs and access policy.
• The effectiveness of the exceptional access framework in responding to future crises.