2015年-德勤中国_德勤2015医疗服务行业展望_20页_1mb

2015 Global Health Care Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global health care sector in 2015, highlighting the tension between rising demand for health services and the pressure to reduce costs. It outlines the key trends, drivers, and considerations that will shape the industry over the coming years.

Main Trends and Issues

1. Cost Containment and Rising Spending

• Global Spending Growth: Health care spending is expected to increase from $7.2 trillion in 2013 to $9.3 trillion by 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%.
• Contradictory Forces: While spending is expected to rise, the pressure to reduce costs and demonstrate value is intensifying.
• Regional Variations:
  • North America: U.S. spending is projected to grow at 4.9% annually, reaching 17.9% of GDP by 2018.
  • Western Europe: Spending growth is expected to be slower, with some countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain facing tighter budgets.
  • Asia and Australasia: Projected to grow at 8.1% annually, with India and China experiencing the strongest increases (15.2% and 12.5%, respectively).
  • Japan: Spending is expected to remain sluggish due to yen devaluation.
  • Middle East and Africa: Projected to see the fastest growth, at 8.7% annually, due to population growth and efforts to expand access to care.

2. Demographic Drivers

• Population Aging: Expected to increase the number of people over 65 globally to around 580 million by 2018, with higher proportions in Western Europe and Japan.
• Chronic Diseases: The rise of lifestyle-related chronic diseases (e.g., diabetes, cancer, heart disease) is increasing demand for health care services.
• Health Technology Advances: Improvements in treatments and technologies are extending life expectancy but also driving up costs.

3. Value-Based Care (VBC)

• Shift from Volume to Value: There is a growing push towards value-based care models that focus on quality and cost efficiency.
• Challenges for Physicians: Many are reluctant to adopt VBC due to concerns about financial risk and the complexity of new payment systems.
• Government Role: Governments are developing strategies to align providers under new payment arrangements, including co-payments and rationing.

4. Market Forces and Consolidation

• Government Influence: Governments are playing a more active role as payors, regulators, and market-shapers.
• Consolidation Trends: Rapid consolidation is expected, especially in the U.S., with both vertical and horizontal mergers increasing.
• Cross-Industry Mergers: Large companies are acquiring hospitals and health systems in China to gain scale and improve value chain synergy.

5. Talent and Workforce Challenges

• Shortage of Qualified Professionals: Both developed and developing countries are struggling with a shortage of trained doctors and nurses.
• Uneven Distribution: In the U.S., the doctor-to-population ratio is 3.3 per 1,000, while in South Africa it is only 0.6 per 1,000.
• Reliance on Expatriates: Middle Eastern countries heavily depend on foreign health care workers, with Saudi Arabia having around 76% expatriate physicians.
• India's Challenge: India needs an additional 1.54 million doctors and 2.4 million nurses to match the global average.

Key Considerations for Stakeholders

• Innovation and Technology: Stakeholders are increasingly focusing on innovation and digital transformation to improve care delivery and manage costs.
• Regulatory and Compliance Pressures: Regulations and compliance are becoming more stringent, especially in regions like the UK and Sweden.
• Consumerism and Cost Sharing: Consumers are becoming more involved in health care decisions, leading to higher out-of-pocket costs in some countries.
• Globalization and Access: While globalization presents opportunities for international hospital chains and pharmaceutical companies, it also brings challenges in ensuring sufficient health care workers and infrastructure.

Conclusion

The global health care sector in 2015 is marked by a complex interplay of rising costs, increasing demand, and the need for innovation and efficiency. Stakeholders must navigate these challenges by adopting new models, enhancing collaboration, and investing in technologies that can improve care delivery while managing financial pressures.