2022-04-22-莱坊-UK_Housing_Market_Forecast_April_2022_6页_674kb

UK Residential Market Forecast Summary

1. Sales Market Forecast (2022-2026)

• Overall Growth: House prices are expected to grow by 5% in 2022, driven by factors like low interest rates, limited supply, increased household wealth, and post-pandemic desire for more space. Growth is expected to slow to around 6% in 2023 before gradually decreasing.
• Cumulative Growth: Over the five years (2022-2026), average UK house prices are forecast to increase by 13.6%.
• Regional Variation:
  • Prime Central London (PCL): Prices will rise by 3.5% in 2022, 6% in 2023, before decreasing towards 3% by 2025. Long-term cumulative growth is predicted at 22.2%.
  • Prime Outer London (POL): Expected to grow by around 4% per year over the period, with a total cumulative growth of 15.9%.
  • Prime Country: Prices are forecast to grow by total 17.0%, with small increases like 5.5% in 2022 and year-on-year declines anticipated for some years due slow normalization and specific regional factors.
• Mainstream Markets: Regionally differentiated performance, with cumulative growth from 10.4% (London) to 14.8% (East Midlands/East).

2. Rental Market Forecast (2022-2026)

• Overall Growth: UK rents are predicted to increase 4% in 2022, underpinned by limited supply and strong tenant demand, leading to a cumulative increase of 17.1% over the five years.
• Annual Growth: The average annual CPI rent growth rate for the whole market is expected to be around 3.5%-4% from 2023 onwards, relatively slower than prime rentals.
• Cumulative Growth:
  • Prime Rental Markets (specifically PCL & POL):
    • Prime Central London (PCL): Expected to grow by 22.7% cumulatively.
    • Prime Outer London (POL): Forecast to increase by 19.3% cumulatively.
  • Mainstream Rental Markets: Cumulative growth varies slightly from 15.9% to 19.9% for different regions.

3. Key Influencing Factors:

• Supply Constraints: Likely to remain a key driver of both price and rent growth across all segments.
• Interest Rates/Mortgage Costs: Rising interest rates (following inflation) will act as a drag on property growth from 2023.
• Post-Pandemic Behavior: Lingering desire for space ('race for space') continues to support growth.
• Economic Conditions: Broader trends like logistics and life sciences growth ( Midlands) or supply/demand imbalances shape regional performance. Core inflation is expected to moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

This report highlights significant divergence between Prime and Mainstream markets, strong cumulative growth over the period, and slower but still positive growth expected from 2023 onwards in some sectors, set against the backdrop of tightening supply and evolving macro-economic conditions.