2022-05-18-莱坊-UK_Residential_Property_Market_Update_May_2022_2页_274kb

UK Residential Property Market Update Summary (May 2022)

Core Content Overview

The UK residential property market experienced a slowdown in house price growth in April 2022, with both the Halifax and Nationwide reporting a deceleration in annual growth. Despite this, supply continues to lag behind demand, resulting in a gradual rather than abrupt course change. The market sentiment remains strong, with buyers still optimistic about current and future house prices. In London, prime central and outer areas show divergent trends, with central London recovering steadily while outer London growth moderates. The country market, on the other hand, continues to see robust price increases.

Main Market Trends

House Price Growth

• Annual Growth:
  • Halifax: 10.8% in April 2022, down from 11.1% in March.
  • Nationwide: 12.1% in April 2022, down from 14.3% in March.
• Monthly Growth:
  • Nationwide reported a 0.3% increase in April, compared to 1.1% in March.
• Expected Future Growth:
  • Mainstream house price growth is expected to fall to single digits in 2022 due to rising borrowing costs and living expenses.
• Survey Insights:
  • 38% of respondents were either moving or considering a move, a figure higher than during the pandemic peak in April 2021.
  • Space remained a key priority for buyers, though the preference for rural over urban areas has declined.

London Property Market

Prime London Sales

• Prime Outer London:
  • Prices rose by 1.9% in the three months to April, the first slowdown of the year.
• Prime Central London (PCL):
  • Prices showed quarterly growth of 1%, the highest since July 2015.
  • The market is recovering after six years of subdued activity and a quiet pandemic period.

Prime London Lettings

• Rental Values:
  • Prime areas in London are 9% higher than pre-pandemic levels due to low supply and high demand.
• Market Indicators:
  • Market valuation appraisals were 40% below the five-year average in April.
  • New prospective tenants registrations were 57% higher than the same period.
• Annual Growth:
  • Prime Central London: 29.2% increase in rental values.
  • Prime Outer London: 23.5% increase in rental values.
• Pandemic Impact:
  • Rents hit a low in early 2021 due to an oversupply of short-let properties, but have since rebounded as supply has become scarce.

Country Market Performance

• Prime Regional Prices:
  • Annual growth reached 11.3% in March 2022, the strongest since Q3 2009.
  • Quarterly growth was 3.5%, the highest since Q2 2021.
• Index Performance:
  • The Prime Country House Index rose 1% above its previous peak in Q3 2007.

Key Statistics

Market Outlook

• The market is expected to rebalance gradually, with demand and supply dynamics continuing to influence prices.
• Rising mortgage rates and cost-of-living pressures are expected to moderate growth in outer London.
• Prime central London is on a steady recovery path, driven by strong demand and limited supply.
• The country market is showing signs of sustained growth, with prices reaching new highs.

Contact Information

• Chris Druce
  Senior Research Analyst
  Email: chris.druce@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 20 7861 5102

• Tom Bill
  Head of UK Residential Research
  Email: tom.bill@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 20 7861 1492

• Knight Frank Research Reports
  Available at: knightfrank.com/research
  Provides strategic advice and forecasting to developers, investors, and public sector clients.

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Knight Frank LLP accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage resulting from its use. Reproduction of this report is not allowed without prior written approval.