世界银行-科摩罗国家气候与发展报告（英）-2025_91页_15mb

Comoros Climate and Development Report Summary

This summary outlines the key findings, challenges, and recommendations from the Comoros Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). The report highlights Comoros' high vulnerability to climate change, with significant impacts on economic sectors and poverty. Adaptation and mitigation efforts are essential, but implementation gaps and limited financing constrain progress. The following sections provide a structured overview.

Executive Summary

• Comoros faces high climate vulnerability, with estimated GDP losses of $836 million by 2050 due to climate impacts.
• Key risks include increased temperatures, sea-level rise, droughts, and impacts on agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, and water resources.
• Adaptation measures can reduce economic losses by up to 50%, but implementation challenges and limited fiscal space hinder progress.
• Priority areas include enhancing agricultural and fisheries resilience, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, safeguarding water supply, and increasing renewable energy capacity.
• Financing needs $1.7 billion by 2030, with a focus on public-private partnerships, innovative finance, and leveraging international mechanisms.

Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts

• Comoros is highly exposed to natural hazards, with 54% of the population at risk; climate change exacerbates existing threats.
• Key impacts:
  • Agriculture: Rainfed crop yields decline by 7.4–15% by 2050 under Dry/Hot scenarios, driven by water scarcity and heat stress.
  • Fisheries: Potential declines of -8.3% to -12.2% in maximum catch potential, affecting livelihoods.
  • Infrastructure: Roads, bridges, and coastal assets face significant damage from flooding, erosion, and extreme events.
  • Water: Demand increases by 50% by 2050, worsening water scarcity and quality issues.
• Poverty rates could rise by up to 5.4 percentage points under BAU, but adaptation reduces this to 2.7 percentage points by 2050 under REC scenarios.

Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts

• Comoros has NDC targets: 40% GHG reduction by 2030, 33MW renewable energy increase, and carbon sink development.
• Institutional framework includes the National Committee on Climate Change, but implementation gaps, weak coordination, and capacity constraints persist.
• Climate change considerations are missing in some policies, limiting effective adaptation.
• Recommended improvements: Strengthen legal and regulatory frameworks, clarify mandates, and enhance institutional coordination.

Economic and Fiscal Challenges

• Fiscal space is limited due to low domestic revenue mobilization (8% of GDP), high public debt, and state-owned enterprise inefficiencies.
• Debt reached 32.7% of GDP in 2023, down from a higher 2017 level, but risk remains high.
• Public debt could increase by up to 4% of GDP by 2050 with adaptation costs; reforms are needed to ensure fiscal sustainability.
• Growth constraints: GDP growth averages 3.2–4.6% under BAU/REC scenarios, but climate impacts reduce this significantly.

Financing Climate Transition

• $1.7 billion needed for climate finance by 2030 (average $154 million/year), with 53%, 24%, and 23% for mitigation, adaptation, and loss/damage.
• Financing sources: Public sector (96% of $163 million/year 2019–2020), grants (68.2%), and limited private sector (4%).
• Recommendations: Enhance domestic resource mobilization, leverage concessional financing, develop public-private partnerships, and explore carbon markets and debt-for-nature swaps.

Priority Policy Actions

• Institutional recommendations: Finalize climate policies, clarify mandates, and build capacity.
• Implementation support: Strengthen community engagement, disaster risk financing, and climate-resilient governance.

Conclusion

Comoros must prioritize climate action to limit economic losses and build resilience. Strengthening institutions, mobilizing finance, and implementing targeted investments are critical. International cooperation and innovative financing mechanisms will be key to achieving climate goals and sustainable development.