20150714-DBS_Group-Stock_market_tumble_yet_to_impact_property_market_18页_640kb

报告摘要

China Property Weekly Digest Summary (Issue No. 133)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the property market performance in China, focusing on sales, new launches, inventory levels, and share price performance across Tier I, II, and III cities as of 14 July 2015. It also includes valuations and performance metrics of key property companies.

Key Market Trends

Weekly Sales Performance

Overall Sales (GFA):
- GFA sold decreased by 14.6% week-over-week (w-o-w) in major Tier I/II/III cities.
- The average sell-through rate increased to 72%, up from 61% last week.
- Sales volume in the first two weeks of July was 3% higher than June's average.
- ASPs dropped slightly w-o-w, mainly due to Tier I cities.
Year-to-Date (YTD) Sales:
- Sales volume in the first 28 weeks was 23% higher year-over-year (y-o-y).
- ASP was 7.5% lower than in 2014.
Inventory Levels:
- Inventory level remained stable at 69 weeks, lower than 2014's average of 77 weeks.
- The inventory level for 16 cities was also stable w-o-w.

Tier I Cities

GFA Sales:
- Weekly GFA sales decreased by 15% w-o-w.
- YTD GFA sales were 22.7% higher than the same period in 2014.
- ASP for Tier I cities decreased by 4% w-o-w and was 26% higher than the previous 4 weeks on average.
Cities Performance:
- Beijing: GFA sales dropped by 5% w-o-w, ASP fell by 15%.
- Shanghai: GFA sales fell by 18% w-o-w, ASP dropped by 1%.
- Shenzhen: GFA sales decreased by 3% w-o-w, ASP remained flat.
- Guangzhou: GFA sales fell by 33% w-o-w, ASP decreased by 1%.

Tier II Cities

GFA Sales:
- Weekly GFA sales decreased by 16% w-o-w.
- YTD GFA sales were 36% higher than the same period in 2014.
Cities Performance:
- Tianjin: GFA sales fell by 27% w-o-w, ASP decreased by 4%.
- Hangzhou: GFA sales dropped by 45% w-o-w, ASP fell by 1%.
- Shenyang: GFA sales decreased by 11% w-o-w, ASP dropped by 11%.
- Sanya: GFA sales fell by 3% w-o-w, ASP increased by 15%.

Tier III Cities

GFA Sales:
- Weekly GFA sales decreased by 12% w-o-w.
- YTD GFA sales were 94% higher than the same period in 2014.
Cities Performance:
- Dongguan: GFA sales fell by 34% w-o-w, ASP dropped by 9%.
- Weifang: GFA sales increased by 41% w-o-w, ASP increased by 0%.
- Guilin: GFA sales increased by 143% w-o-w, ASP increased by 8%.
- Shantou: GFA sales decreased by 4% w-o-w, ASP increased by 2%.

Share Price Performance and Peer Valuations

YTD Share Price Performance:
- The report includes a chart showing the year-to-date share price performance, but no specific numerical data is provided in the text.
Valuation Comparison:
- Large Cap:
  - China Overseas: Price HK$25.6, 3-month trading value US$m252.4, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 8%, PE: 7, PE Yield: 8.2%, Yield: 7.7%, ROE: 31.7%, Net Gearing: 1.6%, P/Bk 14A x: 25.5, NAV %: (0.5), Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 25.5.
  - Country Garden: Price HK$3.17, 3-month trading value US$m71.6, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 16%, PE: 3, PE Yield: 5.6%, Yield: 5.4%, ROE: 54.2%, Net Gearing: 0.8, P/Bk 14A x: 3.7, NAV %: 15.0, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 15.0.
  - CR Land: Price HK$22.3, 3-month trading value US$m154.6, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 30%, PE: 11, PE Yield: 12.6%, Yield: 11.3%, ROE: 42.7%, Net Gearing: 1.3, P/Bk 14A x: 27.0, NAV %: 17.5, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 17.5.
  - Evergrande: Price HK$4.44, 3-month trading value US$m69.5, 12-month recommendation: Hold, EPS growth: 42%, PE: 14, PE Yield: 7.1%, Yield: 6.3%, ROE: 85.9%, Net Gearing: 0.5, P/Bk 14A x: 9.4, NAV %: 52.8, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 52.8.
  - Longfor: Price HK$11.4, 3-month trading value US$m66.4, 12-month recommendation: NR, EPS growth: 15%, PE: 12, PE Yield: 7.0%, Yield: 6.3%, ROE: 57.1%, Net Gearing: 1.1, P/Bk 14A x: n.a., NAV %: n.a., Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: n.a.
  - Shimao Property: Price HK$14.36, 3-month trading value US$m49.9, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 7%, PE: 9, PE Yield: 5.3%, Yield: 4.9%, ROE: 58.6%, Net Gearing: 0.8, P/Bk 14A x: 28.5, NAV %: 49.7, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 49.7.
  - China Vanke: Price HK$18.56, 3-month trading value US$m204.9, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 6%, PE: 11, PE Yield: 9.8%, Yield: 8.8%, ROE: 5.4%, Net Gearing: 1.9, P/Bk 14A x: 22.8, NAV %: 18.7, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 18.7.
- Mid Cap:
  - Agile Property: Price HK$4.87, 3-month trading value US$m19.1, 12-month recommendation: Hold, EPS growth: 27%, PE: 5, PE Yield: 4.4%, Yield: 4.6%, ROE: 75.2%, Net Gearing: 0.4, P/Bk 14A x: 16.9, NAV %: 71.2, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 71.2.
  - COGO: Price HK$3.48, 3-month trading value US$m7.9, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 86%, PE: 29, PE Yield: 3.4%, Yield: 2.6%, ROE: 70.4%, Net Gearing: 0.4, P/Bk 14A x: 10.1, NAV %: 65.5, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 65.5.
  - Yanlord Land: Price HK$1.025, 3-month trading value US$m2.0, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 29%, PE: 44, PE Yield: 10.4%, Yield: 7.2%, ROE: 44.9%, Net Gearing: 0.5, P/Bk 14A x: 2.0, NAV %: 49.0, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 49.0.
- Small Cap:
  - BJ Cap Land: Price HK$4.72, 3-month trading value US$m9.6, 12-month recommendation: NR, EPS growth: 10%, PE: 36, PE Yield: 4.1%, Yield: 3.0%, ROE: 87.0%, Net Gearing: 0.8, P/Bk 14A x: n.a., NAV %: n.a., Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: n.a.
  - C C Land: Price HK$1.87, 3-month trading value US$m4.8, 12-month recommendation: Hold, EPS growth: 39%, PE: 4, PE Yield: 7.5%, Yield: 7.8%, ROE: 18.5%, Net Gearing: 0.3, P/Bk 14A x: 4.5, NAV %: 58.7, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 58.7.
  - Central China: Price HK$1.92, 3-month trading value US$m4.7, 12-month recommendation: Buy, EPS growth: 6%, PE: 28, PE Yield: 4.0%, Yield: 3.1%, ROE: 43.4%, Net Gearing: 0.6, P/Bk 14A x: 6.5, NAV %: 70.4, Disc/(Prem) to NAV %: 70.4.

Key Insights

The property market showed a decline in GFA sales, primarily due to a reduction in new project launches.
Despite the decline in sales, the average sell-through rate improved, indicating better demand for existing properties.
Inventory levels remained stable, with a reduction compared to 2014.
Share price performance varied among companies, with some showing positive trends and others experiencing declines.
Valuation metrics suggest that some large and mid-cap companies are undervalued or fairly valued, while others show mixed performance.

Conclusion

The property market in China experienced a mixed performance during the first two weeks of July 2015, with a notable decline in GFA sales but an improvement in the sell-through rate. Inventory levels were stable, and the overall market trend suggests a slowdown in sales, especially in Tier I cities. Share price movements and valuations indicate a range of market sentiments, with some companies showing potential for growth and others facing challenges. The report highlights the importance of tracking both sales and valuation metrics to understand the current state and future prospects of the property market.

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