【世界银行】阿尔及利亚2024年秋季经济更新：持续出口增长的整体框架-2024_46页_1mb

报告摘要

Algeria Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Algeria's economic developments in the first half of 2024 and outlines the outlook for 2024–2026. It emphasizes the need for a holistic framework to support sustained export growth, particularly in non-hydrocarbon sectors, and highlights the challenges posed by global decarbonization efforts and hydrocarbon price volatility.

Main Points and Key Information

Recent Economic Developments (H1-2024)

Non-extractive sectors showed robust growth, contributing to the overall GDP growth of +3.9% y-o-y.
Investment growth accelerated to +15.5% y-o-y, stimulating industrial production and import demand.
Private and public consumption remained strong, supporting the economic expansion.
Nighttime lights data suggest that non-extractive growth was driven by the North-Center region.
Agricultural output remained resilient, helping to stabilize inflation.
Oil and gas production declined in H1-2024, with crude oil production quotas reduced in January and European gas demand moderating.
Inflation decelerated significantly, falling to 4.3% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2024, supported by stabilized fresh food prices, moderated import prices, and a stable exchange rate after the Bank of Algeria halted depreciation in mid-2022.
Current account moved closer to balance, but fiscal deficit widened due to declining hydrocarbon revenues and rising public spending.
Foreign exchange reserves increased slightly to about 16.2 months of imports by end-September 2024.

Outlook and Risks (2024–2026)

GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 to 3.1% y-o-y due to stable hydrocarbon output.
Fiscal and external deficits will remain elevated, with the fiscal deficit projected to rise to 5.2% of GDP in 2024.
Current account deficit is anticipated to expand due to rising import volumes, while foreign exchange reserves are expected to decline but remain at a comfortable level.
Global energy prices and climate-related risks pose a significant threat to the macroeconomic outlook.
Public debt is expected to reach 49.5% of GDP by the end of 2024, but remains domestically held at low rates and long-term maturities.

Towards a Holistic Framework for Export Growth

Non-hydrocarbon exports have tripled since 2017, reaching $5.1 billion or 2.0% of GDP in 2023.
Export complexity is limited, with fertilizers, iron and steel, and cement accounting for over 80% of non-hydrocarbon exports.
Export diversification is crucial for long-term growth, and productivity improvements are essential to enhance competitiveness.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) contribute 20% of non-hydrocarbon value-added, and their productivity needs improvement.
Supportive exchange rate and trade policies are necessary to encourage export diversification and attract foreign direct investment (FDI).
Adapting to global decarbonization is a key challenge, especially with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could increase export costs for carbon-intensive products.
Over 80% of Algeria’s non-hydrocarbon exports to Europe are carbon-intensive, including fertilizers, cement, and iron and steel.
Greening production processes, diversifying export destinations, and implementing carbon pricing will be decisive for sustainable export growth.

Key Recommendations

Strengthen the business environment to improve firm productivity and export competitiveness.
Develop value chains with export potential and enhance export facilitation.
Adapt to global decarbonization trends to avoid cost increases from CBAM and sustain export growth.
Implement macroeconomic policies that support non-hydrocarbon export diversification and long-term productivity gains.
Manage fiscal and external risks through sustainable public spending and diversified revenue streams.

Supporting Data and Analysis

Figure 1: Investment demand was mostly met through imports.
Figure 2: The services sector was the main driver of growth.
Figure 3: Nighttime lights indicate heterogeneous growth in H1-2024.
Figure 4: The North-Center region contributed most to non-hydrocarbon growth.
Figure 5: Rainfall improved in the East but worsened in the West during the 2023–2024 crop season.
Figure 6: Crop growth measures tracked rainfall patterns.
Figure 7: Crude oil and natural gas production declined in H1-2024.
Figure 8: Export prices remained elevated, despite moderation in natural gas prices.
Figure 9: The current account narrowed as export prices decreased and import volumes expanded.
Figure 10: Import prices eased for some products, but import volumes remained high.
Figure 11: Export volumes declined in 2024, as suggested by vessel tracking data.
Figure 12: Lower container and cargo imports were offset by higher bulk imports.
Figure 13: Fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to increasing current expenditures.
Figure 14: The deficit will be partially financed by oil savings.
Figure 15: Inflation eased due to stabilized fresh food prices.
Figure 16: Meat and fish prices stabilized, while fruit and vegetable prices declined.
Figure 17: The exchange rate remained stable in H1-2024.
Figure 18: Money supply and credit to the private sector grew faster during 9m-2024.
Figure 19: Non-hydrocarbon export volumes increased since 2017, led by chemical and manufactured products.
Figure 20: Non-hydrocarbon exports remain concentrated in a few products, notably fertilizers.
Figure 21: Algeria's exports are less complex than those of its peers.
Figure 22: Exports are concentrated in a small number of countries.
Figure 23: Total factor productivity is lower than in the region.
Figure 24: Labor productivity is lower in public firms than in private ones.
Figure 25: Products affected by CBAM represent an increasing share of Algeria’s exports.
Figure 26: Algerian fertilizers have a higher carbon content than EU products.

Key Boxes

Box 1: Measures taken by Algeria to support investment, including the launch of AAPI’s online platform and land grants.
Box 2: Sustainable forest management to combat forest fires.
Box 3: CBAM implications for Algeria, including the potential cost increases for carbon-intensive exports.

Conclusion

Algeria's economy showed resilience in H1-2024, with non-extractive sectors driving growth and inflation gradually contained. However, external and fiscal pressures are rising, and hydrocarbon price volatility remains a key risk. A holistic approach is required to sustain export growth, including productivity improvements, policy reforms, and adaptation to global decarbonization trends. The diversification of non-hydrocarbon exports and integration into global value chains are strategic priorities for the country’s long-term economic development.