2023-11-23-世界银行-阿尔及利亚经济更新_2023年秋季_继续多元化努力（英）-2023+-44页_44页_2mb

报告摘要

Algeria Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Algeria's recent economic developments and outlook for the short and medium term, focusing on the recovery from the pandemic, the impact of hydrocarbon price fluctuations, and the need for economic diversification.

Main Points

Recent Economic Developments (2022–H1-2023)

Nonhydrocarbon Growth: Continued strong growth in nonhydrocarbon sectors in H1-2023, supported by investment and government consumption. Nonhydrocarbon GDP grew by 4.3% in 2022, the strongest since 2015, and reached pre-pandemic levels.
GDP Recovery: Overall GDP growth reached 3.2% in 2022, with nonhydrocarbon growth at 4.0% in Q1-2023 and 3.0% in Q2-2023.
Hydrocarbon Output: Hydrocarbon production decreased by 0.6% in H1-2023 due to OPEC quota cuts, but natural gas output increased.
Fiscal and External Balances: The current account surplus reached a record 19 billion USD in 2022 (9.8% of GDP), but declined to 2.9 billion USD in H1-2023 due to lower hydrocarbon exports.
Inflation: Inflation remained elevated at 9.7% in H1-2023, driven by rising fresh food prices. The dinar stabilized after depreciation was curtailed in H2-2022.

Outlook and Risks (2023–2025)

GDP Growth: Expected to recover to 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, with nonhydrocarbon sectors continuing to drive growth.
Fiscal Outlook: Fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2023 and 2024 due to lower hydrocarbon revenues and higher current spending, but will narrow afterward.
External Balance: The current account is expected to remain positive in 2024 and 2025 as export and import volumes stabilize.
Inflation: Inflation is projected to decline gradually in 2024 and 2025 due to improved rainfall and more moderate money supply and import price growth.
Oil and Gas Prices: Volatility in oil and gas prices remains a key risk to economic stability and growth.
Public Debt: Public debt reached 55.6% of GDP at the end of 2022 and increased in H1-2023, but Treasury savings also rose, reducing the financing gap.

Key Information

Nonhydrocarbon Growth:
- Supported by investment and government spending.
- Continued in Q2-2023, with nightlights data indicating slower but sustained growth.
- Industrial activity, especially in sectors like SMMEEI, construction materials, and chemicals, was stimulated by investment.
- Private manufacturing recovered fully, while SOE manufacturing remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Hydrocarbon Sector:
- Oil production and exports fell due to OPEC quota cuts, but natural gas production and exports increased.
- The current account surplus in 2022 was largely due to high oil and gas prices, which declined in H1-2023.
Fiscal and Public Finance:
- Budget revenues were mostly driven by hydrocarbon revenues, which declined in H1-2023.
- Public spending was more rigid than in most peer countries, with civil service wages and transfers increasing in 2023.
- Fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2023 and 2024 before narrowing, with oil savings helping to offset the deficit.
Monetary Policy:
- The dinar stabilized in H1-2023 after ending 14 years of depreciation.
- Monetary policy remained unchanged since the increase in reserve requirements in April 2023.
- Credit growth to the private sector remained subdued, while credit to SOEs increased slightly.
Challenges and Risks:
- The output gap remains slightly negative in 2022, with GDP still below its pre-pandemic potential.
- Structural macroeconomic imbalances persist due to the sensitivity of GDP, exports, and budget revenues to global oil prices.
- Climate risks, such as droughts, have impacted agricultural output and pose ongoing threats to the economy.
- Geopolitical uncertainties and volatile hydrocarbon prices continue to affect the macroeconomic outlook.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Economic Diversification: Continued efforts to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons are essential to improve resilience against price fluctuations.
Private Sector Growth: Encouraging private sector-led investment and growth remains crucial for sustainable and diversified development.
Fiscal Reforms: Increasing tax revenues and improving spending efficiency, particularly in public investment, are needed to reduce fiscal imbalances.
Stability and Resilience: Building up foreign exchange reserves and oil savings has enhanced the medium-term resilience of the Algerian economy.

Annexes

Annex 1: Examines trends in public finances from 2000 to 2022, including the shift from budget surpluses to deficits in the 2010s.
Annex 2: Includes special sections on the economic update, such as the dynamics of public finances since 2020.