战略与国际研究中心-Mid_15页_2mb

Mid- and Long-Term Prospects for Human Spaceflight: Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by Vincent Sabathier, G. Ryan Faith, and Ashley Bander for the CSIS Space Initiatives, examines the challenges and potential solutions for U.S. human spaceflight in the mid- and long-term. The report focuses on three critical "gaps" that could hinder progress in space exploration, and it provides recommendations for mitigating these gaps to ensure continued U.S. leadership and international cooperation in space.

Main Points

The Three Gaps

1. Shuttle Retirement Gap: The gap between the retirement of the Space Shuttle (planned for 2010) and the initial operational capability (IOC) of the Constellation Program (expected in 2015).
2. ISS Utilization Gap: The gap in the ability of the ISS to be fully utilized due to the limited down-mass capability of the Russian Soyuz spacecraft, which is the only means of access during this period.
3. Lunar Exploration Gap: The gap in the timeline for returning to the moon and establishing a permanent lunar base, which is expected by 2019.

These gaps threaten the U.S. space program, the ISS, and international cooperation in lunar exploration.

Budget Scenarios

The report evaluates three budget scenarios for the next 10 years:

1. Status Quo: A flat-line budget, which is unlikely to support timely development of the Constellation Program, risking delays and increased costs.
2. Ideal Scenario: A $2 billion annual increase for human spaceflight, which would allow for the acceleration of Constellation development and support additional shuttle flights and COTS-D programs.
3. Middle-Ground Scenario: A $1 billion annual increase, which would allow for the protection of Ares V development and the funding of additional shuttle flights or an expanded COTS-D program.

Mitigation Options

The working group proposed several options to mitigate the gaps:

• Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS-D): A program that leverages commercial launchers and the Orion capsule, with two variants: as planned or using an expendable launch vehicle (ELV) and an Orion-lite.
• Enhanced International Cooperation: Expanding partnerships with existing and emerging spacefaring nations to support ISS utilization and lunar exploration.
• DIRECT Scenario: A shuttle-derived launcher that could be developed within the current budget, though it requires further evaluation.

Key Criteria for Evaluation

• Safety: Ensured through the use of a launch abort system.
• Availability: The ability to launch regularly and support missions.
• Affordability: Cost-effective development and operation of systems.
• Capability: Meeting both short-term and long-term exploration needs, including LEO and beyond.

Recommendations

1. Maintain Ambitious Goals: Commit to utilizing the ISS through at least 2020 and returning to the moon by 2019. A minimum $1 billion annual increase in NASA's budget is recommended to support these goals.
2. Engage International Partners: Strengthen existing partnerships and engage emerging spacefaring nations through the ISS intergovernmental agreement and interoperability in new spaceflight capabilities.
3. Validate the Constellation Program: Conduct an independent review of Ares I and accelerate the development of Ares V and Orion. Reassess alternate scenarios to ensure programmatic viability.
4. Revise and Expand COTS-D: Provide additional funding for an expanded COTS-D program at $2 billion, which should be open to both U.S. and international launchers to build a robust and interoperable fleet.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a pragmatic and flexible approach to mitigate the three gaps in U.S. human spaceflight. It advocates for increased funding, international collaboration, and the validation of existing and alternative programs to ensure the future of human space exploration. Without mitigation, the U.S. risks losing its leadership in space and failing to achieve its long-term goals.