2007年-世界发展银行全球_A_Review_of_Allocations_and__Expenditures_in_the_Public_Sector_72页_776kb

Summary of Technical Note 6: A Review of Allocations and Expenditures in the Public Sector

Core Content

This technical note is part of the Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) study and focuses on analyzing the allocations and expenditures in the public sector, particularly in the roads and irrigation sectors, from 2002-03 to 2005-06. The analysis aims to provide insights into the planning process and project cycles, which are essential for understanding the implementation capacity of infrastructure projects in Pakistan.

Main Objectives

• To understand the structure and size of Pakistan's economy and its budgetary process.
• To analyze the allocations and expenditures in the previous Public Sector Development Programs (PSDPs) and Annual Development Programs (ADPs).
• To provide a basis for assessing the implementation capacity in the context of the planned Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) for 2005-10.

Methodology

• The study analyzed federal and provincial PSDPs and ADPs for the period 2000-01 to 2005-06.
• It focused on major infrastructure sectors, specifically roads, irrigation, power, railways, and ports.
• Statistical analysis was conducted on a project-by-project basis to evaluate allocation and expenditure patterns.
• The MTDF was also reviewed to understand the planned expansion in infrastructure.

Key Findings

Economy and Population

• Pakistan has a population of about 153.5 million and a land area of 796,100 square kilometers.
• Agriculture contributes significantly to the economy, providing employment to 45% of the labor force.
• The construction and transport sectors contribute 5.9% and 5.8% of employment, respectively.
• The economy has seen a decline in growth rate from 2.69% per annum during 1981-98 to 2.06% during 2001.

Budget Structure and Size

• The government budget for 2002-03 to 2004-05 averaged Rs1,349 billion, which is more than a quarter of the GDP at current factor cost.
• Capital expenditures account for 18% of the total budget, with 46% of the total capital expenditure allocated to development (PSDP) and 54% to non-development.
• The average allocation for federal projects is 17.3% of the project cost, while for provincial projects it is 8.8%, indicating a longer completion time for provincial projects.

Public Sector Development Programmes (PSDP)

• The MTDF 2005-10 plans for a total national PSDP expenditure of Rs2,042 billion, which is about six times the average past PSDP expenditure.
• Infrastructure accounts for 48.6% of the planned outlays, followed by MDGs at 35%.
• Projects under public-private partnerships and private financing are estimated to cost an additional Rs554 billion in the Power and Transport & Communications sectors.

Allocations and Expenditures in Specific Sectors

Roads Sector

• Federal Projects: 184 projects, average cost Rs4,148 million, average allocation Rs717 million, 17.3% of cost, average completion time 5.8 years.
• Provincial Projects:
  • Punjab: 653 projects, average cost Rs415 million, average allocation Rs35 million, 8.3% of cost, average completion time 12 years.
  • Sindh: 742 projects, average cost Rs191 million, average allocation Rs14 million, 7.4% of cost, average completion time 13.6 years.
  • NWFP: 743 projects, average cost Rs117 million, average allocation Rs11 million, 9.8% of cost, average completion time 10.2 years.
  • Balochistan: 1,229 projects, average cost Rs56 million, average allocation Rs12 million, 21.9% of cost, average completion time 4.6 years.
• Overall, 3,551 road projects were evaluated, with 184 federal and 3,367 provincial.

Irrigation and Power Sectors

• Federal Projects: 182 projects, average cost Rs12,977 million, average allocation Rs704 million, 5.4% of cost, average completion time 18.4 years.
• Provincial Projects:
  • Punjab: 549 projects, average cost Rs264 million, average allocation Rs9 million, 3.2% of cost, average completion time 30.8 years.
  • Sindh: 133 projects, average cost Rs90 million, average allocation Rs8 million, 9.3% of cost, average completion time 10.7 years.
  • NWFP: 253 projects, average cost Rs408 million, average allocation Rs19 million, 4.7% of cost, average completion time 21.2 years.
  • Balochistan: 471 projects, average cost Rs20 million, average allocation Rs6 million, 29.7% of cost, average completion time 3.4 years.
• Overall, 1,588 irrigation and power projects were evaluated, with 182 federal and 1,406 provincial.

Allocation vs. Expenditure

• In 2002-03, there were 254 projects with positive allocations and expenditures.
  • Roads: Federal projects had an expenditure of Rs12.2 billion (33% more than allocations), while provincial projects had varying levels of expenditure.
  • Irrigation and Power: Federal projects had an expenditure of Rs395 billion (3 times more than allocations), and provincial projects had higher expenditures in some cases.
• In 2003-04, there were 490 projects with allocations and expenditures.
  • Roads: Federal projects had an expenditure of Rs17.8 billion (47% more than allocations), while Punjab and Sindh had lower expenditures.
  • Irrigation and Power: Federal projects had an expenditure of Rs68.66 billion (121% of allocations), and some provinces exceeded allocations significantly.

Summary of Over and Under Spending

• Federal Projects: Expenditure exceeded allocations in all sectors during 2002-03 and 2003-04.
• Punjab: Expenditure was less than allocations in both roads and irrigation sectors.
• Sindh: Expenditure was less than allocations in the roads sector during 2003-04.
• NWFP: Expenditure was less than allocations in the roads sector during 2002-03 but exceeded in 2003-04.
• Balochistan: Allocations and expenditures were balanced in roads and irrigation sectors, except for irrigation in 2003-04.

Key Information

• The analysis reveals that the number of projects in hand is much greater than the funds available, leading to large throw forwards.
• The average cost of federal projects is 27 times higher than provincial projects.
• The MTDF plans for a significant expansion of infrastructure, with an overall national PSDP expenditure of Rs2,042 billion.
• There is a notable disparity in the allocation and expenditure patterns between federal and provincial projects.
• The study highlights the importance of aligning allocations with actual expenditures to improve implementation capacity and reduce delays.

Conclusion

The study underscores the challenges in managing public sector infrastructure projects in Pakistan, including the mismatch between allocations and expenditures, delays due to lack of funds, and the need for improved budgeting and implementation mechanisms. The findings are crucial for the PIICA study and will inform future planning and policy-making in the public sector.