2008年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon___Electricity_Sector_Public_Expenditure_Review_90页_4mb

Summary of the Republic of Lebanon Electricity Sector Public Expenditure Review

Core Content

The Republic of Lebanon Electricity Sector Public Expenditure Review (PER) is a comprehensive analysis of the electricity sector's financial challenges and reform options. It aims to assist the Government of Lebanon (GOL) in identifying measures to improve service delivery, reduce public expenditure, and introduce private sector participation (PSP) to enhance efficiency and governance in the sector.

Main Views

• Electricity Sector Crisis: The sector is in a critical state, leading to frequent power outages, high costs for consumers, and significant fiscal burden on the government. The sector is estimated to cost 4% of GDP in 2007 and 39% of total government spending between 1997 and 2006.

• Subsidy Challenges: The electricity sector relies heavily on subsidies, which are primarily due to low tariffs and poor service quality. These subsidies are not justified by reliable service or sound policy, and their reduction is crucial for fiscal sustainability.

• Demand and Supply Outlook: Electricity demand is projected to increase by 60% by 2015, requiring new generation capacity. The report estimates that at least 1,500 MW of additional capacity and US$1 billion in capital investment will be needed.

• Fuel Cost Analysis: The report compares different fuel options for new power plants, finding that piped natural gas is the cheapest option, followed by coal. LNG and gas-oil are more expensive but could be viable for energy security reasons.

• Private Sector Participation: The private sector is already involved in the sector's operations, but not in capital investment. Private sector involvement could reduce costs, but requires careful fiscal management and tariff adjustments.

• Reform Measures: Several reform measures are proposed, including improving billing, reducing technical losses, fuel switching, and restructuring the sector. These reforms are expected to significantly reduce subsidies and improve service reliability.

Key Information

1. Public Expenditure and Fiscal Impact

• The electricity sector is a major drain on public finances.
• Subsidies account for 3.5% of GDP in 2007, projected to drop to 0.9% by 2010 with reforms.
• The Paris III Reform Program is the backbone of sectoral reform and has received broad support.

2. Demand and Supply Projections

• Electricity demand is expected to reach 20,598,450 MWh by 2015.
• New generation capacity will be required, with 1,500 MW needed at minimum.
• Self-generation is expected to remain a third of total electricity consumption.

3. Fuel Options and Cost Analysis

• Piped natural gas is the most cost-effective option for new generation plants.
• LNG is more expensive than piped gas but could be a viable alternative for energy security.
• Gas-oil is currently used in some plants but is not economically viable compared to natural gas.

4. Reform Options and Savings Potential

• Improving billing (reducing non-technical losses) could save US$7.3 million in 2008 and US$97.3 million by 2015.
• Fuel switching at Beddawi and Zahrani could save US$208.2 million in 2008 and US$323 million by 2015.
• Rehabilitation of Jieh and Zouk power plants could extend their operational life by 10 years, with a return of 20% and 27% respectively and annual savings of US$60 million.
• Optimization of T&D network to reduce technical losses from 15% to 10% could save US$14.8 million in 2008 and US$90.9 million by 2015.

5. Private Sector Role

• The private sector is already involved in the management and operation of the sector.
• Private sector participation in capital investment could reduce the cost per kWh by US$1.60/kWh.
• The report does not discourage IPPs but emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of public vs. private financing options.

6. Tariff Reform and Social Protection

• The current tariff is set at a level that covers an oil price of US$25/barrel, but has not been adjusted since 1996.
• A tariff adjustment is necessary for cost recovery, but must be implemented carefully to avoid political backlash.
• A tariff adjustment action plan is recommended, to be supported by targeted social protection measures to mitigate adverse impacts on vulnerable consumers.

7. Implementation Challenges

• Reforms need to be sequenced and implemented in a way that balances immediate service improvements with long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Political interference remains a major obstacle to effective reform.
• The Master Plan is recommended to analyze and evaluate reform options in detail, especially in terms of least cost planning and fiscal exposure.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the electricity sector in Lebanon is in crisis, it is not technically impossible to turn it around. The key lies in reform sequencing, tariff adjustments, and private sector participation. The World Bank encourages the Government to develop a transparent fiscal framework and targeted social protection to support these reforms. Ultimately, the report emphasizes that private sector involvement is part of the solution, but sector reform is essential to ensure long-term sustainability and efficiency.