2025-06-12-Jefferies-佳定集团（CRST）_佳活集团_2025年上半年业绩_7页_106kb

Crest Nicholson Equity Research Summary (June 12, 2025)

Financial Performance

Crest Nicholson reported an adjusted operating profit of £11.9 million for the first half of 2025, aligning with the FY25 guidance of £28-38 million. Management expressed confidence in delivering strong results for the second half, expecting increased unit deliveries (from 739 in 1H25 to >1,000-1,200) that will help leverage overhead costs and demonstrate ongoing operational improvements. Key metrics include a steady sales rate of 0.61 units per outlet per week since January, plus net debt of £71.5 million as of 1H25.

Market and Valuation

• Equity Research assigns a "BUY" rating with a target price of 217.00p (+15% from current 189.30p). The stock shows volatility, with a 52-week range of £140p to £272p.
• Analyst perspectives emphasize buy recommendations, with Jefferies highlighting sustainable ROCE at 0.85x and total return expectations of 15% or more under a "BUY" rating.
• Market cap is £484.9M (equivalent to $655.0M at current exchange rates).

Orders and Future Outlook

The group has an order book of 763 units this year, with approximately 1,500 of the guided 1,700-1900 FY25 units completed or reserved. This anticipated step-up in deliveries in 2H25 drives better cost leverage, alongside potential land sales and cost control measures. Risks include supply chain challenges, though recent performance suggests less likely severe downturn scenarios.

Company Details

Crest Nicholson, formed in 1968 and relisted in 2013, operates in the south of England. It focuses on operational efficiency and inventory reduction, with key risks tied to interest cover covenants and macroeconomic factors like house price inflation versus build cost changes. Analyst certifications confirm personal views accurately reflect recommendations, and the report includes extensive disclosures on conflicts of interest and research methodologies.