ECIRENA-欧盟可再生能源展望（英文）-20182-120页-17mb

Summary of Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union

Core Content

The document presents the findings of the IRENA REmap EU study, which evaluates the potential for increasing renewable energy (RE) deployment across the European Union (EU) by 2030. It outlines the current state of RE in the EU, the methodologies used to assess this potential, and the key recommendations for achieving a more sustainable and decarbonised energy system.

Main Points

• IRENA's Role: IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in transitioning to a sustainable energy future. It serves as a platform for international cooperation and provides policy, technology, and financial knowledge on renewable energy.

• REmap Programme: REmap is IRENA’s initiative to assess the potential for scaling up renewable energy. It is a bottom-up approach that combines country-specific analyses with global aggregation to identify cost-effective RE deployment options.

• EU Renewable Energy Context: The EU has been a leader in renewable energy deployment, increasing its share from 9% in 2005 to 16.7% in 2015. It is on track to meet its 2020 target of 20% and has a 2030 target of 27% renewable energy share.

• REmap EU Study: The study was conducted in collaboration with the European Commission and national/international experts. It aims to identify what is technically and economically possible for the EU to achieve in terms of renewable energy use by 2030, beyond the 27% target.

• Key Findings:

  • The EU could double its renewable share from 17% in 2015 to 34% by 2030, if the right enabling frameworks are in place.
  • All EU Member States have cost-effective potential to increase RE use.
  • Renewables are crucial for long-term decarbonisation and meeting the Paris Agreement goals.
  • The electricity sector can support high shares of solar PV and wind power.
  • Heating and cooling solutions, particularly through renewable sources, account for over one-third of the EU's untapped RE potential.
  • Biomass will remain a key renewable energy source beyond 2030.
  • Transport and industry sectors require all available renewable options to achieve decarbonisation goals.

• Cost-Effectiveness and Savings: The full implementation of REmap options could result in annual net cost savings of USD 25 billion by 2030. These savings come from the most cost-effective technologies, even when considering the additional costs of some options.

• Technological Advancements: The rapid cost reductions and performance improvements in key technologies like solar PV and offshore wind have significantly increased the potential for RE deployment.

• Energy Efficiency Synergy: If the EU achieves its proposed 30% energy efficiency target by 2030, the RE share could rise to 34%, with the same level of deployment.

• Sectoral Analysis:

  • Power Sector: The study highlights the importance of integrating variable renewables like solar and wind, and the need for grid modernisation and interconnections.
  • Transport: Electric vehicles and biofuels are essential for reducing emissions in this sector.
  • Industry: Solar thermal and other renewables can play a significant role in decarbonising industrial energy use.
  • Buildings: Electrification through heat pumps and solar thermal systems can tap into the EU's untapped RE potential.

• Collaboration and Review: The study involved collaboration with national and international experts, including the Joint Research Centre (JRC), which reviewed and benchmarked the findings against other studies.

• Uncertainties and Risks: While the study identifies the technical and economic potential of RE, it acknowledges that future developments and policy choices will influence outcomes. The study also notes that the EU's energy future is subject to uncertainties in technology, economics, and social factors.

Key Information

• Methodology: REmap uses a bottom-up approach, combining country analyses with global aggregation. It includes 70 countries, covering 90% of global energy use.

• Data Sources: The study draws on country-specific analyses, high-level data, and modelling from the power sector.

• Cost-Supply Curve: A key figure in the report shows the cost-supply curve of renewable energy options, indicating the cost-effectiveness of various technologies.

• Economic and Environmental Benefits: The study highlights that renewables can boost economic growth, maintain industrial leadership, and create jobs, while also delivering substantial environmental and health benefits.

• Energy System Savings: The report includes a figure showing energy system savings versus fossil fuel price variations, highlighting the economic viability of RE deployment.

Structure of the Report

• Executive Summary: Provides an overview of the study, its purpose, and key findings.
• Methodology: Details the approach used, including the REmap framework and power sector analysis.
• Renewable Energy Prospects for the EU by 2030: Breaks down the potential in different sectors and compares REmap vs. Reference Case.
• Discussion and Recommendations: Offers insights into the challenges and opportunities for RE deployment in each sector.
• Looking Ahead: Discusses future energy strategies and the role of IRENA and the EU in achieving a sustainable energy transition.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the EU has the capacity to significantly increase its renewable energy share by 2030, with the potential to reach 34% if the right policies and investments are made. It underscores the importance of renewables in achieving climate goals, energy security, and economic growth. The findings provide a roadmap for Member States to explore the technical and economic feasibility of renewable energy deployment and highlight the need for collaboration, policy support, and technological innovation.