欧盟可再生能源前景（英文版）_120页-15mb

Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union Summary

Core Content

The REmap EU report, conducted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with the European Commission and national/international experts, evaluates the potential for increasing renewable energy usage across the European Union (EU) by 2030. The study identifies cost-effective renewable energy options that can be implemented to meet and potentially exceed the EU's 2030 target of a 27% share of renewable energy in the energy mix.

Key Findings

• The EU could double its renewable energy share, from 17% in 2015 to 34% in 2030, if the right enabling frameworks are in place.
• All EU Member States have cost-effective potential to increase their use of renewable energy.
• Renewables are essential for the long-term decarbonisation of the EU energy system.
• The European electricity sector is capable of accommodating large shares of solar PV and wind power.
• Heating and cooling solutions represent over one third of the EU’s untapped renewable potential.
• All renewable transport options are necessary to achieve the EU’s long-term decarbonisation goals.
• Biomass will remain a key renewable energy source in the EU beyond 2030.

Methodology

• The REmap programme is a bottom-up approach that involves country-level analyses and aggregates them for a global perspective.
• The REmap EU study includes detailed analyses for 10 EU Member States (accounting for 73% of EU energy use) and high-level assessments for the remaining 18 countries.
• The study compares REmap Options (realisable renewable-based technology potential) with the Reference Case (continuation of existing and planned policies).
• It evaluates the cost-supply curve, economic and environmental impacts, and technological feasibility of renewable deployment across all sectors.

Sectors and Technologies

Power Sector

• The EU can increase its renewable share in electricity generation to 34% by 2030.
• Solar PV and wind are key technologies for achieving this.
• Variable renewable energy (VRE) is expected to grow significantly, with low curtailment rates.
• The power system model highlights the importance of interconnectors for balancing renewable supply and demand across the EU.

End-Use Sectors

• Transport: Electric vehicles and biofuels are critical for increasing renewable energy use.
• Industry: Solar thermal and other renewables can play a major role in decarbonisation.
• Buildings: Solar thermal and heat pumps can help achieve higher renewable shares through electrification of heating and cooling.

Economic and Environmental Impacts

• Full implementation of all REmap options could result in USD 25 billion in annual net cost savings by 2030.
• The cost of substitution is evaluated using levelised cost of energy (LCOE) and conventional technology alternatives.
• Energy efficiency improvements can further boost the renewable share, reaching 34% if the 30% energy efficiency target is met.
• Renewables can contribute to reducing emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement goals.
• The REmap analysis also considers the uncertainties in the future of the EU energy system, including technological, economic, and social factors.

Collaboration and Acknowledgements

• The report was directed by Dolf Gielen, Director for Innovation and Technology at IRENA.
• It was prepared by a team including Luis Janeiro, Laura Gutierrez, Gayathri Prakash, and Deger Saygin, with contributions from numerous IRENA colleagues and University College Cork for power sector analysis.
• The Joint Research Centre (JRC) reviewed and benchmarked the findings against other studies.
• International experts and REmap country focal points provided valuable feedback and insights during the preparation of the report.

Conclusion

IRENA’s REmap EU study highlights the feasibility and economic benefits of significantly increasing renewable energy usage in the EU by 2030. It serves as a roadmap for Member States to explore and implement cost-effective renewable energy solutions, supporting the EU’s climate and energy objectives. The report also underscores the importance of policy frameworks, technological advancements, and international cooperation in achieving a sustainable, secure, and affordable energy future for the EU.