20250620-广发期货-原木周报_交割逻辑主导_盘面低位反弹_18页

报告摘要

Report Summary

Overview

The 2025年6月20日 report on original wood (radidata pine and yew) focuses on the weekly market analysis. The main driver for the price rebound from approximately 750 to 800 yuan/m³ is the delivery cost logic, with a shift to a near-strong and far-weak month-to-month structure. Fundamentals show a double weak supply-demand equilibrium, particularly with summer monsoon season delays offloading and reduced supply from New Zealand. Despite the rebound, overall market sentiment remains cautious due to upcoming delivery risks.

Key Points

Price Movement: LG2507 contract rose to 812 yuan/m³, with increased holding volumes indicating trader activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu saw minor increases or held steady.
Supply and Demand: Import arrivals surged with a 16% increase in tonnage arriving in China ports. However, demand is weakening due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall, reducing effective output.
Fundamentals: The market is entering a slow season with reduced demand, compounded by higher import volumes pressures. Operation suggestion: Maintain a sideways stance or consider September-November reverse arbitrage schemes, given the 6-day countdown to contract delivery.
External Factors: Exchange rates and sea freight indices show stability, but overall demand indicators like cement and concrete shipments remain subdued.