20180322-兴业金融证券-吉利汽车-00175.HK-Continuous_Strong_Growth_11页_480kb
报告摘要
Geely Automobile Holdings Summary
Core Content
Geely Automobile Holdings (Geely) is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory in 2018, with a projected market share of 6.8% (up from 5.2% in 2017). The company anticipates a volume growth of 32% to 1.645 million units, surpassing its guidance of 1.58 million units for 2018. This growth is supported by improved platform manufacturing, which is expected to drive a 3-year earnings CAGR of 29%, primarily due to cost reductions.
Main Points
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Revenue and Net Profit Growth (2017):
- Revenue: CNY92.76bn (+72.7% YoY)
- Net profit: CNY10.7bn (+107.6% YoY)
- Recurring net profit: CNY10.161bn, which beat consensus estimates.
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Earnings Forecast (2018-2020):
- FY18F: CNY12.436bn
- FY19F: CNY18.339bn
- FY20F: CNY21.638bn
- Recurring EPS: 1.36 (2018), 2.00 (2019), 2.36 (2020)
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Sales and Product Launches:
- Geely plans to launch seven new models in 2018, including one MPV, two SUVs, two sedans, and two NEVs.
- Four new models launched in 2H17 are expected to drive sales growth.
- Sales volumes are forecasted to reach 1.64m (2018), 2.10m (2019), and 2.36m (2020) units.
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Market Share Projections:
- 6.8% (2018), 8.9% (2019), and 10.3% (2020) of China's passenger vehicle market.
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Valuation and Target Price:
- Target Price: HKD29.00 (12% upside from current price)
- Revised PEG: 0.60x based on 3-year CAGR of 29%
- DCF valuation: HKD31.70
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Key Drivers:
- Strong models pipeline
- Margins improvement through scale effect and product mix
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Key Risks:
- Unsuccessful sales from the Lynk & Co brand
- Potential impact on earnings growth due to Lynk & Co's loss-making status
Financial Highlights
| Metric | Dec-16 | Dec-17 | Dec-18F | Dec-19F | Dec-20F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Turnover (CNYm) | 53,722 | 92,761 | 111,970 | 123,191 | 143,564 |
| Recurring Net Profit (CNYm) | 4,800 | 10,161 | 12,436 | 18,339 | 21,638 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 38.7 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| P/B (x) | 7.51 | 5.39 | 4.15 | 3.11 | 2.40 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 22.9 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 7.4 |
Share Performance
- Price: HKD25.80
- Market Cap: USD29,504m
- 52-wk Price Range: HKD10.2 - HKD29.2
- Avg Daily Turnover: HKD1,375m / USD176m
- Free Float (%): 49
- Shares Outstanding (m): 9,156
- Estimated Return: 12%
Shareholders
- Proper Glory Holding Inc: 29.5%
- Moody’s Investors Service: 29.6%
Share Performance (YTD and Rolling)
| Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | -4.8 | -9.8 |
| 1m | +8.6 | +8.7 |
| 3m | +1.2 | -5.8 |
| 6m | +6.6 | -5.2 |
| 12m | +127.9 | +100.2 |
Financial Exhibits
- Recurring EPS Growth: 109.8% (Dec-16 to Dec-17), 22.4% (Dec-17 to Dec-18F), 47.5% (Dec-18F to Dec-19F), 18.0% (Dec-19F to Dec-20F)
- Net Profit Margin: 9.5% (Dec-16), 11.5% (Dec-17), 11.1% (Dec-18F), 14.9% (Dec-19F), 15.1% (Dec-20F)
- Gross Margin: 18.3% (Dec-16), 19.4% (Dec-17), 19.4% (Dec-18F), 19.2% (Dec-19F), 19.2% (Dec-20F)
- Operating EBITDA Margin: 14.0% (Dec-16), 14.2% (Dec-17), 14.5% (Dec-18F), 14.2% (Dec-19F), 14.0% (Dec-20F)
- Interest Cover: 50.8 (Dec-16), 75.2 (Dec-17), 90.4 (Dec-18F), 94.4 (Dec-19F), 106.1 (Dec-20F)
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Price (HKD) | Mkt Cap (US$m) | PER Hist | PER FY1 | PER FY2 | EPS FY1 YoY% | EPS FY2 YoY% | PEG | Div Yld Hist | Div Yld FY1 | P/B Hist | P/B FY1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geely Automobile | 175 HK | 25.80 | 29,505 | 38.7 | 17.5 | 14.8 | 121.2 | 18.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| HSI | - | - | - | 14.5 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 3.88 | 35.91 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| CSI300 | - | - | - | 17.2 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 2.15 | 21.58 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Sector avg (Auto) | - | - | - | 14.1 | 12.5 | 10.5 | - | - | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| BYD CO LTD-H | 1211 HK | 73.80 | 26,538 | 31.8 | 42.7 | 27.3 | 32.8 | 54.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| GREAT WALL MOT-H | 2333 HK | 8.75 | 14,865 | 6.1 | 12.3 | 8.5 | -50.4 | 45.0 | N/A | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| DONGFENG MOTOR-H | 489 HK | 9.78 | 10,740 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| GUANGZHOU AUTO-H | 2238 HK | 16.90 | 22,613 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 60.8 | 20.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| BRILLIANCE CHINA | 1114 HK | 18.92 | 12,166 | 20.9 | 15.7 | 10.2 | 32.8 | 54.1 | N/A | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Average (Chinese OEMs) | - | - | - | 15.95 | 6.99 | 1.07 | 2.30 | 3.45 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| European OEMs | - | - | - | 6.89 | 6.57 | 6.27 | 2.51 | 4.73 | 1.0 | 2.87 | 3.45 | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| US OEMs | - | - | - | 5.75 | 6.46 | 6.54 | -18.69 | -0.95 | N/A | 5.38 | 5.09 | 1.36 | 1.18 |
Conclusion
Geely is viewed as a strong growth opportunity, with continued expansion in market share and earnings expected to grow at a healthy rate. The company is projected to have a significant impact on the Chinese passenger vehicle market and is anticipated to lead local brands. The target price is set at HKD29.00, with a revised PEG of 0.6x. However, the performance of the Lynk & Co brand remains a key risk to the investment thesis.
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