20230827-华泰期货-尿素周报_低库存高基差持续_期货或将偏强震荡_11页_2mb

Urea Market Summary

Current Situation

Urea现货价格 stabilized at 2600元/吨, supported by Indian export tenders exceeding expectations, which bolstered demand and prices.

Inventory

Domestic inventory levels are low at 2794万吨, indicating tight supply conditions.

Demand Outlook

With the onset of September-October fertilization season, demand is expected to improve, positively impacting prices.

Price Projections

High prices are anticipated to persist due to low upstream inventory, strong export demand, seasonal demand growth, and current market dynamics.

Strategy Recommendation

Suggest buying套保 (hedging) in the futures market, as high现货升水 and基差 indicate opportunities for purchases.

Risks

Market risks include changes in plant shutdown schedules, demand gaps during periods, fluctuations in inventory, shifts in market sentiment, and disruptions from international factors.