2010年-世界发展银行全球_Assessment_of_the_Impact_of_the_Crisis_on_New_PPI_Projects___Update_5_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of PPI Data Update Note 35 – February 2010

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on new private infrastructure projects (PPI projects) in developing countries during the third quarter of 2009 and the first three quarters of 2009 compared to the same periods in 2008. It highlights trends in investment recovery, financing conditions, project delays, and regional and country-level variations.

Main Points

1. Investment Recovery and Selectivity

Investment commitments to PPI projects in developing countries increased by 22% in Q3 2009 and 10% in the first three quarters of 2009 compared to the same periods in 2008.
The recovery was selective, concentrated in large energy projects in Brazil, India, and Turkey, which accounted for 78% of the investment and all the growth in Q3 2009.
Russia saw a sharp decline due to the financial crisis and the end of its privatization program.
Excluding Brazil, India, Turkey, and Russia, investment in developing countries would have fallen by 49% in Q3 2009 and 5% in the first three quarters.

2. Financial Market Conditions

Projects able to raise financing face more stringent conditions: lower debt/equity ratios, higher spreads and fees, shorter debt tenors, and embedded refinancing mechanisms.
Debt/equity ratios in Q3 2009 were in the low to mid-70s/30s, significantly lower than the 80s/20s of the pre-crisis period.
Commercial banks have reduced their involvement, leading to a "flight to quality" where only projects with strong fundamentals and solid sponsors are being financed.
Project restructuring is becoming more common, with about 4% of reviewed projects reporting it as a major impact of the crisis.

3. Key Financing Sources

Local public banks and multilateral/bilateral agencies are the main financiers, with local public banks contributing 25% of the investment in Q3 2009 and 16% in the first three quarters.
Multilateral and bilateral agencies provided funding to 5 projects in Q3 2009 (US$3.4 billion) and 18% of the projects in the first three quarters (US$13.3 billion).
Infrastructure sponsors are exploring new funding sources, such as local capital markets. Examples include Adani Power (India) and IDEAL (Mexico).

4. Project Delays and Cancellations

15% of reviewed projects by investment were delayed, canceled, or at risk of delay due to the crisis by the end of Q3 2009.
Transport is the sector most affected, with 28% of its investment impacted, including 18% delayed, 6% at risk, and 4% canceled.
Energy projects had 9% of investment affected, with 4% delayed and 5% at risk.
Implementation issues unrelated to the crisis (e.g., land acquisition and government approvals) also contributed to delays, with shares ranging from 1% to 12%.
Project closures slowed compared to earlier quarters, with a 36% drop in Q3 2009 when excluding Brazil, India, Turkey, and Russia.

5. Sectoral Trends

Energy showed the most resilience, with a 21% increase in Q3 2009 and 37% growth in the first three quarters, reaching US$45.2 billion.
Telecoms saw a 39% increase in Q3 2009 but a 20% decline in the first three quarters, with US$5.2 billion in total.
Water and sewerage experienced a 15% drop in Q3 2009 and a 12% decline in the first three quarters, with US$1.6 billion in total.
Transport had the lowest investment in the first three quarters of 2009, down 27% compared to 2008, with US$13.7 billion in total.

6. Regional Variations

South Asia had the highest investment growth, with a 72% increase in the first three quarters, driven mainly by India.
Latin America and the Caribbean saw a 34% increase in investment, but this was largely due to two large Brazilian hydropower projects.
East Asia and Pacific had a 40% increase in investment, but one project (Philippines' transmission company) accounted for 47% of the total.
Europe and Central Asia experienced the most significant decline, with a 45% drop in investment in the first three quarters.
Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa saw no closures in Q3 2009 and a 34% decline in the first three quarters, respectively.

7. Country Income Groups

Lower-middle-income countries saw the highest investment growth, up 40% in Q3 2009 and 50% in the first three quarters.
Upper-middle-income countries had stable investment in Q3 2009 but a 12% decline in the first three quarters.
Low-income countries saw a 19% drop in Q3 2009 and a 24% decline in the first three quarters, with 23 projects totaling US$2.9 billion.

8. Project Types

Greenfield projects (build-operate-transfer, build-operate-own, merchant facilities) showed growth, with US$10 billion in Q3 2009, a 36% increase from 2008.
Concessions and divestitures declined, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards new projects.

Key Information

Investment recovery was strong but selective, with energy being the only sector showing growth.
Financing conditions worsened, with higher costs, shorter tenors, and more conservative structures.
Local public banks and multilateral/bilateral agencies remained key financiers, but could not fully replace commercial banks.
Project delays were common, especially in transport, and were influenced by both the crisis and non-crisis-related factors.
Regional disparities were significant, with South Asia and lower-middle-income countries showing the most resilience.
Greenfield projects continued to attract investment, while concessions and divestitures faced challenges.