2009年-世界发展银行全球_Assessment_of_the_Impact_of_the_Crisis_on_New_PPI_Projects___Update_Three_8页_723kb

Summary of the Impact of the Crisis on New PPI Projects – Update 3

Core Content

This document provides an assessment of the impact of the financial crisis on new private participation in infrastructure (PPI) projects in developing countries, focusing on the period from January 2008 to March 2009. It highlights the slowdown in project closures, the challenges in securing financing, and the sectoral and regional disparities in the effects of the crisis.

Main Points

• Continuity of PPI Projects: Despite the financial and economic crisis, new PPI projects continue to be implemented in developing countries, though at a slower pace. Between July 2008 and March 2009, the investment closure rate dropped by 15% compared to the previous year, and the number of projects also declined.

• Recovery in Early 2009: There were signs of recovery in early 2009, with investments in the first quarter of 2009 increasing by 35% compared to the first quarter of 2008. However, this growth was driven by a few large priority projects in select countries, particularly in electricity, which had strong sponsors and government backing.

• Challenges in Financing: The financial crisis has made it more difficult to secure both debt and equity financing. The cost of financing has increased, and the perceived credit risk of governments has risen, leading to a "flight to quality" where investors prefer projects with strong fundamentals and government support.

• Project Delays and Cancellations: A significant number of projects have been delayed or cancelled due to the crisis. Transport is the most affected sector, with over 50% decline in investment and more than 40% drop in the number of projects. Energy projects also face delays, though to a lesser extent.

• Regional and Income Group Disparities: Middle-income countries, especially in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA), have been the most affected by declining investments. Upper middle income countries saw a 30% drop in investments, while low and lower middle income countries remained stable. ECA and upper middle income countries also experienced the highest number of project delays and cancellations.

• Project Types and Trends: Greenfield projects, which include build-operate-transfer and merchant facilities, have shown more resilience and higher investment levels compared to concessions and divestitures. However, they are also more impacted by delays. The debt/equity ratio for greenfield projects has decreased, indicating increased reliance on equity.

• Role of Public and Multilateral Institutions: Local state-owned banks, bilateral and multilateral agencies, and export credit agencies have become more active in financing PPI projects due to the reduced participation of commercial banks. They provided funding for a significant portion of projects, though it is unlikely they can fully replace other financing sources.

• Ongoing Project Activity: There are still many new PPI projects in tender or award stages, with at least 57 projects in the final tender stage and expected to be awarded in the next three months. The total investment in these projects is estimated at US$27 billion.

Key Information

• Total Investment in PPI Projects: Between July 2008 and March 2009, 147 PPI projects reached closure with US$55 billion in investments, representing a 15% decline in investment and a 30% decline in the number of projects compared to the same period in the previous year.

• Transport Sector Impact: Transport is the worst-affected sector, with 40 projects involving US$11.8 billion in investments. This is a 50% decline in investment and over 40% drop in the number of projects compared to the previous year.

• Energy Sector Resilience: Energy projects showed more resilience, with a 9% increase in investment and the same number of projects as the previous year. However, 21% of energy investments were delayed or at risk of delay.

• Debt and Equity Trends: The average debt/equity ratio for infrastructure projects dropped from 85/15 in 2005-07 to 73/27 in 2008 and further to around 70/30 in early 2009, indicating increased reliance on equity due to higher financing costs.

• Project Delays and Cancellations: About 14% of reviewed projects by investment were delayed or cancelled due to the crisis, with transport and energy sectors most affected. Additionally, 8% of projects were at risk of delay if financing is not secured.

• Future Outlook: The financial crisis is expected to continue affecting PPI projects in developing countries, with a likely decline in private capital flows and challenges in securing financing. The recovery seen in early 2009 may not be sustained.

Conclusion

The financial crisis has significantly impacted the pace and success of PPI project closures, particularly in the transport and energy sectors. While some recovery has been observed, it is driven by a few large projects and may not continue throughout 2009. ECA and upper middle income countries are the most affected regions, and the overall trend suggests that the crisis has increased financing costs and delayed or cancelled a significant number of projects. The document emphasizes the need for continued government support and strong financial fundamentals to ensure the success of PPI projects in the face of economic uncertainty.