20231114-招银国际-新秀丽-01910.HK-3Q_Rev_NP_+21_94__low-teen_growth_for_2024E_6页_1mb

Samsonite (1910HK) Financial Update Summary

Key Highlights

• Q3 2023 Performance: Revenue of $958 million, adjusted net profit of $126 million, up 21% and 94% YoY respectively.
• Growth Drivers: Strong sales from TUMI brands, particularly in China, contributing 293% increase in TUMI sales.
• Marginal Improvements: Gross margin at 596% (up 390 bps YoY), EBITDA margin at 203% (record high).
• Outlook: Management expects upper-teens to 20%+ sales growth in Q4 2023 vs 2019 levels, driven by China's Double11 event and TUMI expansion. Low-teens growth for 2024E.
• Balance Sheet: Deleveraging completed with net debt reduced to ~$12 billion, net leverage ratio at 18x (lowest since TUMI acquisition).

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY with target price of HK$300 (vs previous HK$329).
• Valuation: 12M forward P/E indicates upside potential.
• Key Initiatives: Increase marketing spend to 7% (from 6.2%) starting Q4, with focus on DTC channels and store openings (24/6 stores net added in Asia/Europe year-to-date).
• Earnings Revision: Slight downward adjustment in FY23E-FY25E estimates compared to consensus.

Financial Metrics

• Revenue Growth: Consistent high growth driven by Asia and mix upgrades.
• Margins: Gross margin stabilized around 59% in Q4.
• Debt Levels: Net debt-to-equity down to 0.3x.

Forward Outlook

• Regions: Continued outperformance in Asia, resumption of credit card transactions in Europe.
• Cost Control: Effective cost management enhancing profitability.