20231004-招银国际-新秀丽-01910.HK-3Q_Preview__rev_adj_EBITDA_+20_36__6页_1013kb

Samsonite (1910 HK) 3Q Preview and Outlook

• Quarterly Performance: Analysts forecast strong 3Q revenue growth of +20% to US$950 million, driven by global travel demand during summer holidays. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 36% to US$180 million. North America, Europe, and APAC regions are projected to grow by 7%, 35%+, and 20+%, respectively. TUMI sales are a key growth driver, with a 59% gross profit margin anticipated.

• Analyst Rating: BUY with a target price of HK$32.9 (up 21.7% from current HK$27.0), implying a rerating from 13.0x to ~20.0x 1-year forward P/E.

• Future Outlook:

  • 2024E revenue growth projected in the low-teen range, with APAC as the fastest-growing region due to pent-up travel demand, particularly in Asia.
  • North America is expected to normalize to mid-single-digit growth, while Europe is projected to grow high-single-digit with support from TUMI store openings.

• Financial Health:

  • Balance sheet de-gearing in progress with US$1.9bn debt targeted for repayment, leading to a net debt-to-equity ratio reduction to ~30% by 2025.
  • Plans to resume dividend payouts by end-2023, with an initial payout ratio of 30%.

• Valuation:

  • Current P/E stands at 13.0x, with a DCF-based target price implying 15.9x end-2023E P/E.
  • EV/EBITDA is expected to decline from 13.0x to 6.5x by 2025E.

• Key Risks: Regional mix changes could deviate from estimates; reliance on travel demand recovery post-pandemic may affect growth rates.