2025年亚太经合组织能源展望报告_331页_3mb

APEC Energy Overview 2025 Summary

Core Content

The APEC Energy Overview 2025 provides an annual analysis of energy trends and policies across the 21 APEC economies, focusing on post-pandemic recovery and progress toward APEC energy goals. The report is based on data collected by the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA) and highlights key developments in energy supply, consumption, and the transition to renewable energy.

Main Goals and Progress

APEC has set two primary energy goals:

1. Energy Intensity Improvement: Achieve a 45% reduction in energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP) by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.
2. Renewable Energy Share Doubling: Double the share of modern renewables in the APEC energy mix by 2030 compared to 2010 levels.

Progress in 2022:

• Energy Intensity: Improved by 28% since 2005, with an estimated 1.3% annual reduction needed to meet the 2035 goal.
• Modern Renewables: Increased by 76% in 2022 compared to 2010, reaching 11% of final energy consumption. This is on track to meet the 2030 goal.
• Renewables in TPES: Rose from 4.8% in 2010 to 8.0% in 2022, also showing strong progress toward the 2030 target.

Key Trends in Energy Supply and Consumption

Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

• 2022 TPES: Reached 364 exajoules (EJ), a 2.1% increase from 2021.
• Fossil Fuels Dominance: Still account for 86% of TPES, with coal being the largest contributor at 35%.
• Renewables Growth: Increased by 6.0% in 2022, contributing 8.0% to TPES.
• Regional Variations:
  • Southeast Asia led TPES growth with a 6.0% increase.
  • Russia, Oceania, and other Northeast Asia regions experienced declines.

Total Final Consumption (TFC)

• 2022 TFC: Reached 240 EJ, up 2.0% from 2021.
• Industry Sector: Was the main driver of growth, accounting for over 30% of APEC’s total consumption.
• Non-energy Consumption: Increased by 3.0% to over 30 EJ, with China responsible for 40% of this growth.
• Transport Sector: Slightly increased by 1.0% in 2022, following a 7.3% surge in 2021.
• Commercial Sector: Grew by 2.4% in 2022, slower than 2021.
• Residential Sector: Increased by 1.4%, reaching a historic level of over 36 EJ.
• Agriculture Sector: Grew by 1.0%, reaching over 12 EJ.

Energy Mix by Fuel

• Oil: Accounted for 30% of final energy consumption.
• Heat: Spurred growth with an 8.0% increase.
• Electricity: Remained the second most important fuel, contributing 28% of total consumption.
• Renewables: Declined by 2.0% in 2022, but overall still on track to double by 2030.
• Coal: Grew by 2.2% in 2022, though still below pre-pandemic levels.
• Gas: Increased by 1.2%, reaching an all-time high of 36 EJ.

APEC Energy Goals and Outlook

• The 45% energy intensity improvement goal by 2035 is achievable if the current pace continues.
• The renewable energy share doubling goal is expected to be met by 2030.
• CO₂ Emissions: Fell by 0.6% in 2022, with notable declines in Russia (5.5%), US (3.9%), and other Northeast Asia (3.4%).

Australia's Contribution

Key Data

• Population (2022): ~27 million, expected to reach 37 million by 2050.
• GDP (2021 USD PPP): ~1.494 trillion, with GDP per capita at $58,182.
• Energy Supply (2022): ~5326 PJ, down 2.3% from 2021 due to wet weather and labor disruptions.
• Energy Production: Increased by 80% since 2000, mostly for export markets in Asia.

Energy Supply Mix

• Coal: 29% of supply, down for the fourth consecutive year.
• Oil: 2% increase in supply, remains the most prominent absolute source.
• Natural Gas: Fell by 5.8%, though still used in power generation and LNG exports.
• Renewables: Increased by 11% in 2022, reaching 9.5% of energy supply.

Renewable Generation

• 2023 NEM Renewables Share: 39%, up from 26% in 2021.
• 2030 Target: 82% renewable generation, driven by solar PV, wind, and the Snowy 2.0 Pumped Storage Power Station.

Transport and Energy Efficiency

• Transport Sector: Slightly increased by 1.6%, due to post-lockdown mobility.
• Vehicle Efficiency: New policies, such as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, aim to reduce oil consumption.

Conclusion

The 2025 APEC Energy Overview highlights the mixed trends in energy supply and consumption, with a strong focus on the transition to renewables and reducing energy intensity. Despite the pandemic's impact, APEC economies have made significant progress, particularly in renewable energy and energy efficiency. Australia is a key player in the APEC energy landscape, with notable contributions to coal and LNG exports, but is also making strides toward renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements.