亚开行-就业全球化？（宏观）（英文）-2018.9-44页-1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Is Employment Globalizing?"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the extent to which national labor markets have become more globally interconnected over recent decades. The authors examine three distinct measures of international labor interconnection and provide estimates for 40 countries, 68 countries, and 40 countries respectively. These measures are:

Export-Induced Labor Demand Share (EILD): The fraction of labor demand created by foreign demand for a country's goods and services.
Tradable Employment Share: The proportion of workers employed in sectors producing tradable goods or services.
Trade-Linked Employment Share: The ratio of jobs in tradable sectors or those involved in producing goods/services required by tradable sectors to the total number of jobs in the economy.

The paper challenges the commonly held belief that global employment interconnection has significantly increased, highlighting that the evidence is mixed and varies by country and measure. It also discusses the implications of these findings for policy debates related to macroeconomic coordination, currency devaluation, and labor regulations.

Main Findings

1. Export-Induced Labor Demand

The share of labor demand that is export-induced has increased rapidly in some countries (mostly European), grown slowly in others, and decreased in a few (mostly advanced non-European economies).
This trend is due to a combination of factors: while most sectors have become more export-oriented, rapid productivity growth in these sectors has led to fewer workers being hired, pushing them into nontradable sectors.
The share of labor demand induced by exports is not directly relevant to the incentive for free-riding in stimulus policies, as it is only a subset of all labor demand.

2. Tradable Employment

The share of workers in tradable sectors has tended to decline with economic development, as workers move from agriculture (tradable) to services (nontradable).
Even though trade restrictions may have been lifted, it is unclear whether this has increased the share of workers in de facto tradable sectors.
The tradable employment share is generally between 15% and 40% in most countries, suggesting that a significant portion of the workforce is not engaged in tradable activities.

3. Trade-Linked Employment

Trade-linked employment includes workers in tradable sectors and those in nontradable sectors that support tradable production.
For 30 out of 40 countries, it is impossible to determine unambiguous trends in trade-linked employment due to the balance between declining tradable employment and increasing backward linkages.
In 10 countries, trade-linked employment has unambiguously declined.

Key Implications for Policy

International Macroeconomic Coordination: EILD is relevant to the need for coordinated fiscal policies to prevent free-riding.
Currency Devaluation: The tradable employment share is important for understanding the welfare effects of exchange rate policies, as lower exchange rates can boost tradable sectors but reduce household purchasing power.
Education and Labor Regulations: Trade-linked employment share highlights the importance of pro-competitive human resource policies, as it reflects the number of workers whose pay and productivity affect trade competitiveness.

Methodological Contributions

The authors use three different data sources to ensure robustness of their findings.
Due to data limitations, their estimates are based on bounds analysis and assumptions rather than precise point estimates.
They emphasize the need to test assumptions and consider alternative datasets to improve accuracy.

Limitations and Future Research

The lack of internationally and temporally comparable employment data and input-output tables has hindered empirical analysis.
The authors suggest that future research should focus on improving data availability and consistency to better understand global labor trends.

Conclusion

The globalization of employment is not a uniform phenomenon. While some dimensions of labor markets have become more interconnected, others have seen a decrease in interconnection. Policymakers must therefore adopt a nuanced, case-specific approach when considering the effects of globalization on employment and labor policies. The paper underscores the importance of multiple definitions and the need for careful empirical analysis in this evolving field.

Key Quotes

"The kids in L.A. are not competing for jobs with kids in Compton; they're competing with kids in China." — John Deasy
"Clearly, it is now possible for more people than ever to collaborate and compete in real time..." — Thomas Friedman
"...having taken a resolve to enhance the skill development at a highly rapid pace, I want to accomplish this." — Narendra Modi