深度-未来能源研究所-2021年全球能源展望：巴黎之路（英文）-2021.6-46页_4mb

Summary of Global Energy Outlook 2021: Pathways from Paris

Core Content

This report, Global Energy Outlook 2021: Pathways from Paris, provides a comprehensive analysis of long-term energy projections from leading global institutions to assess the feasibility of achieving the climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. It highlights the need for significant technological and policy changes to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100, especially as the world recovers from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Authors

• Richard Newell: President and CEO of Resources for the Future (RFF), with extensive experience in energy and environmental economics.
• Daniel Raimi: Fellow at RFF and lecturer at the University of Michigan, focusing on equitable energy transitions.
• Seth Villanueva: Research analyst at RFF, specializing in clean energy and climate policy analysis.
• Brian Prest: Fellow at RFF, with expertise in climate change, electricity markets, and oil and gas economics.

Key Findings

Global CO₂ Emissions and Energy Consumption

• In 2020, global CO₂ emissions fell by about 6%, but the IEA predicts a rebound to 2019 levels or above in 2021.
• By 2050, CO₂ emissions under Reference and Evolving Policies scenarios range from 4% above to 21% below 2019 levels.
• Ambitious Climate scenarios targeting 2°C project CO₂ emissions to fall to about 10 billion metric tons (BMT) by 2050, while those targeting 1.5°C see emissions drop to 5 BMT or lower.
• In one 1.5°C scenario (IPCC IP4), emissions could fall below zero by 2050 due to negative emissions technologies.

Energy Demand Projections

• Global primary energy demand is projected to grow by up to 47% under the most aggressive 1.5°C scenario and decrease by up to 44% under the most conservative.
• Reference and Evolving Policies scenarios project modest growth in energy demand, with some showing a plateau or slight decline by mid-century.
• Ambitious Climate scenarios show a significant decline in energy demand, especially in developed regions, due to improved efficiency and electrification.

Fossil Fuel and Renewable Trends

• Fossil fuel use declines significantly in Ambitious Climate scenarios, with natural gas being the only fossil fuel that sees growth in most scenarios.
• Renewable energy resources grow across all scenarios, but the pace varies widely. Wind and solar are expected to play a central role in a net-zero future.
• Under the most conservative scenario (Equinor Rivalry), global wind power generation triples by 2050, while under the most aggressive (IPCC IP2), it grows by a factor of 12.
• Solar electricity generation is projected to grow more than 8-fold under the most conservative scenario and over 28-fold under the most aggressive one.

Regional Differences

• Global East: Includes Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. These regions are expected to see continued growth in energy demand, especially in India and China.
• Global West: Includes the Americas, Europe, and Eurasia. Energy intensity is projected to decline more rapidly in the West than in the East.
• Coal use declines in most regions, but in the Global East, it continues to grow under Evolving Policies, with significant reductions under Ambitious Climate scenarios.
• Natural gas demand is projected to grow in Reference and Evolving Policies scenarios, but decline in Ambitious Climate ones, particularly in Europe and North America.

Energy Intensity and Carbon Intensity

• Energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP) has declined over the last three decades, with further declines expected in all scenarios.
• Under Ambitious Climate scenarios, energy intensity is projected to fall to 2 QBtu per trillion USD (PPP) by 2040, while Evolving Policies scenarios see it drop to 2.5 QBtu/$T.
• Carbon intensity (CO₂ per unit of energy) has remained roughly flat over the past few decades but is projected to decline in all scenarios, with more substantial declines in Ambitious Climate scenarios.

Main Viewpoints

• The global energy system is at a critical inflection point.
• Current policy and technological efforts are insufficient to meet the climate targets outlined in the Paris Agreement.
• The 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios differ significantly in terms of energy demand, emissions, and the role of negative emissions technologies.
• The pandemic had a temporary impact on energy demand and emissions, but most projections assume a return to pre-pandemic trends unless more aggressive climate policies are implemented.

Key Information

• Scenarios are categorized into four types: Reference, Evolving Policies, Ambitious Climate (2°C), and Ambitious Climate (1.5°C).
• The report includes data from multiple institutions: IEA, BP, BloombergNEF, Equinor, IRENA, and OPEC.
• Regional groupings are defined as:
  • East: Africa, Asia-Pacific, Middle East
  • West: Americas, Europe, Eurasia
• Energy intensity and carbon intensity are key metrics used to evaluate the effectiveness of different energy pathways.
• Negative emissions technologies are crucial for achieving 1.5°C targets, especially in the IPCC's IP4 scenario, where CO₂ emissions could fall below zero by 2050.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of rapid and sustained policy and technological change to meet the climate goals set by the Paris Agreement. It highlights the divergent paths of energy consumption and emissions, emphasizing the need for ambitious climate action to avoid the worst impacts of global warming.