2025-06-09-花旗集团-亚太要点_中国经济-出口持续韧性下无需急于达成协议或刺激_13页_619kb

Key Summary from The Point for Asia Pacific June 10, 2025

China's economy shows export resilience with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in May 2025, maintaining strength despite a decline in US exports. Factors include trade rerouting and commodity weaknesses, reducing immediate pressure for stimulus or a US-China deal. The consensus anticipates GDP growth exceeding 5% for the second quarter and a bumpy outlook leading to no major policy changes before the July Politburo meeting.

Industrial companies like IHI Corp. are focusing on portfolio slimming and asset sales for reinvestment, with CEO confidence in nuclear business growth despite long-term challenges, as highlighted in a sell-side meeting.

Sea Ltd. maintains a positive outlook on Southeast Asia's structural growth, particularly in Vietnam, due to strong competition management and merchant engagement, aligning with its 'Buy' rating and target price.

Link REIT is evaluating a potential spin-off of non-Hong Kong/China assets, totaling approximately HK$25bn, as part of long-term value creation for shareholders.

Auto manufacturers report growth in NEV-PV retail sales (+28.2% year-on-year) and exports, with destocking occurring, indicating tracking opportunities amidst strong demand, especially in export markets.

Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) have robust Q1 fiscal year 2026 estimates, driven particularly by HPCL and BPCL, with confidence that a fuel price cut is not imminent, supporting buy-side sentiment among investors.

South Korea's upcoming Lee Jae-myung administration may restructure key ministries, but analysis suggests no quick policy shifts affecting economics or markets significantly.

Getac Technology saw mixed May revenue (-2% month-on-month), with potential upside from the US's July tariff pause deadline, while its aerospace division showed subdued performance but could rebound.

Grab Holdings remains a structural play in ASEAN Internet with opportunities in Vietnam's vibrant e-commerce sector, supported by healthy GDP growth and user penetration, sustaining a 'Buy' rating.

Other analyses include ratings changes: Beijing Enterprises Holdings upgraded from Neutral to Buy, while Li Auto's Neutral rating persists despite a price adjustment, reflecting cautious growth outlooks across various Asia-Pacific sectors. Overall, the report suggests a mixed but cautiously optimistic tone with opportunities in emerging markets and specific industrial plays.