2025-06-09-花旗集团-欧洲要点_14页_192kb

Citigroup Investment Analysis Summary <span class="date">Monday, 9 June 2025</span>

Market Views & Key Insights

• European Equity Strategy:

  • Germany's economic policy delivery shows incremental progress (€46B package approved by cabinet). US tariffs are expected to positively influence trade relations, per White House talks.
  • Despite market improvements, European strategy remains overweight.
  • Mid-cap German stocks are preferred.

• Telecom Sector:

  • European telcos delivered ~20% YTDS total shareholder return, driven by defensive positioning & consolidation hopes.

Company Highlights:

• Vodafone Group (VOD.L):

  • Annual report released; focus on in-market consolidation.
  • Earnings highlight FY24/25 ESG progress.

• United Internet (UTDI.DE):

  • Buy recommendation maintained, raising TP to €29 per share.
  • EV nears zero; remaining challenges around 1&1 customer migration and regulatory clarity.

• 3i Group (III.L):

  • High conviction Buy driven by accelerating new store sales; revised target price to £50.00.

• Rolls-Royce (RR.L):

  • SMR deal likely to proceed with one or two finalists (Rolls-Royce included).

• ENEL (ENEI.MI):

  • Neutral recommendation; outcome of concession extension awaited.

• Envel - (ENEI.MI):

  • Neutral rating.

• Mobility Companies - Europe:

  • 3i Group - Actions: High occupancy rates, optimistic strategy.
  • Rolls-Royce SMR selection nears.
  • Production issues noted in China rare earth exports impact auto sector.

• EUR/USD:

  • Neutral stance maintained for European stocks; underweight relative to US, due to valuation/momentum.

• European Economics:

  • Eurozone Q1 GDP ~2% YoY; tariff frontloading contributed to gains.
  • Resilience noted by ECB Staff Projections.

Sector Performance Analysis:

• Auto: EU BEV penetration remains below targets (~16%, vs previous 18% forecast ref. ECB).
• Resources: Energy transition metals continue capex growth significantly.
• Chemicals: Weekly price tracker released.

Finanical Markets:

• FX: EM aggregate saw stronger inflows.
• Strategy: Momentum strategies led gains in June; Radar model positive regional performance.

Key Ratings & Target Price Changes:

• 3i Group: Price Target raised to £50.00 (≥ 24.2% upside)
• Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW): Target raised to €101.10 per share (≥ 23.3% upside)
• United Internet: Target raised to €29 per share (≥ 26.7% upside)
• Deeper Analysis: Include annual report index, compensation principles, and disclaimer.

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