穆迪-2019中国非银金融机构展望（英文）-2018.11-34页-1mb

报告摘要

China's GDP growth of 6% in 2019 is expected to support broadly stable credit conditions.
However, growth is slowing materially and will affect sectors differently.
Deleveraging will stall for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and slow for private enterprises.
In the base case, the US-China trade dispute will have limited direct effect on rated companies.
Domestic funding markets will offset rising offshore bond market costs and liquidity tightness.

Aggregate revenue and EBITDA for the rated portfolio are projected to rise by 6%-7% in 2019.
Leverage trends vary by sector; overall EBITDA will increase more than debt.
High-yield companies will face tighter funding access and rising financing costs.
Tenors of debt are expected to decrease.

Rated automakers' unit sales growth will differ; dealers and rental providers may benefit from rising vehicle penetration.
Beijing Auto (Baa2 stable) and Dongfeng (A2 stable) are expected to see improved unit sales and stable leverage.
Geely (Ba1 positive) will expand market share and leverage improvement from new JV products.
Revenue growth will slow for Geely and Beijing Auto.
Leverage will improve for most rated companies.

Revenue and profit growth will slow alongside GDP growth.
Companies with diversified product offerings will maintain stable financial performance.
Specialty chemical producers may face financial volatility.
Deleveraging is expected for some rated chemical companies due to reduced capex and asset sales.
US-China trade tensions could weigh on the sector if they escalate.
ChemChina (Baa2 stable) will continue deleveraging with increased profits and reduced debt.
Tianqi Lithium (Baa3 review for downgrade) may see leverage increase if it funds SQM investment largely with debt.

Credit quality is expected to remain stable.
Adjusted debt/EBITDA will remain stable despite higher debt to fund investments.
Revenue growth will slow but remain strong, supported by domestic and overseas infrastructure investments.
Metallurgical sectors and domestic power and property development projects will see modest or low revenue growth.
Leverage for most rated companies is expected to improve.
Government focus on SOE deleveraging may limit investment growth.

Revenue growth will be modest, with EBITDA margins remaining flat or contracting slightly.
Upgraded products and higher selling prices will support revenue growth.
Continued financial discipline will help maintain stable debt and leverage.
Health and Happiness (Ba2 positive) will generate free cash flow from rising revenue and high EBITDA margins.

Revenue growth will remain healthy, but EBITDA margins will contract.
Marketing and fulfillment costs are rising due to competition in lower-tier cities.
Most rated companies pre-funded investment needs in 2017-18, limiting debt growth.
Baidu Inc. (A3 positive) will strengthen financial profile with deconsolidation of financing business and continued cash flow growth.

EBITDA growth will support leverage improvement.
Increased E&P spending, new products, and market expansion will drive strong revenue growth.
Margins will remain stable or improve slightly with cost controls and economies of scale.
Midea (A3 stable) and its subsidiary KUKA AG (Baa3 negative) will drive EBITDA growth and leverage improvement.

Leverage will remain stable despite potential EBITDA declines.
Base metal prices are expected to remain on par with 2018 levels, while thermal coal prices face downward pressure.
Supply-side reforms and environmental policies will limit price declines.
Baowu Steel (A3 stable) will see flat leverage and slightly lower EBITDA.
Cement producers will maintain stable debt/EBITDA due to steady cash flow and disciplined capital spending.

Credit metrics will remain strong for national oil companies (NOCs).
Free cash flow is expected to remain positive, supporting higher capital spending and dividend payouts.
NOCs' natural gas businesses will grow quickly, reducing carbon transition risk.
CNOOC Group (A1 stable) will benefit most from higher oil prices.

Strong revenue growth will drive lower leverage and higher earnings.
Increased E&P spending and new market entries will support growth.
Deep-water and ultra-deep-water markets will remain weak due to overcapacity and high service costs.
Margins will remain flat or improve slightly with cost controls and economies of scale.

Property sales will decline by around 5% in 2019 due to tight regulation and funding access.
Leverage will improve as developers recognize past sales as revenue and slow debt growth.
Gross margins will decline due to rising land and funding costs.
Rated developers are expected to outperform the market and improve leverage.
Industry consolidation will favor large and financially prudent developers like China Vanke (Baa1 stable) and China Evergrande (B1 positive).

Leverage will improve slightly with sales growth and debt reduction.
Margins will remain stable as retailers retain bargaining power with vendors.
Proceeds from property sales will help Maoye (B3 positive) and Golden Eagle (Ba3 positive) reduce debt.
Refinancing risk for rated retailers has declined due to extended maturities.
Maoye and Golden Eagle will see continued improvement in leverage and cash flow.

Property companies will see stronger revenue growth compared to non-property companies.
Revenue growth for property companies is supported by strong contracted sales in 2018.
Debt/EBITDA for property companies will improve further as revenue increases.
Non-property companies' debt ratios are expected to remain stable.
Leverage will decline more for private-owned enterprises (POEs) than for SOEs.
The property sector is the largest component of POEs, with slower deleveraging for SOEs.

Emerging Markets – Global: 2019 outlook broadly stable; higher rates, politics, and trade tensions pose risks.
Cross-Sector – Global: 2019 Outlook – Global credit conditions to weaken amid slowing growth and rising risks.
Global Macro Outlook: 2019-20 – Global growth to decelerate amid tightening liquidity and elevated trade tensions.
Sovereigns – Global: 2019 outlook still stable, but slowing growth signals increasingly diverging prospects.

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