2014年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar___Ending_Poverty_and_Boosting_Shared_Prosperity_in_a_Time_of_Transition_68页_4mb

Myanmar: Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity in a Time of Transition

Core Content

Myanmar is undergoing a significant transformation in its development trajectory, marked by a dual shift from isolation and fragmentation to openness and integration, and from pervasive state control to inclusion, participation, and empowerment. This transition, initiated in 2011 with the establishment of a new administration, has led to improved macroeconomic management, increased natural gas production, and a shift towards private sector-led growth. However, challenges such as political instability, policy discontinuity, and stalled reforms due to vested interests remain.

Main Points

• Political and Economic Transformation: Myanmar has transitioned from a military-dominated economy and isolated political system to a more open and integrated one. This shift has been accompanied by a reduction in state control and an increase in private sector participation.
• Development Challenges: Despite its rich natural resources, Myanmar remains one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia. It has a per capita GDP of $1,105 and a poverty rate of 37.5 percent, the highest in the region.
• Poverty and Inequality: Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas, and is heavily concentrated in conflict-affected regions. Income inequality is relatively low (Gini coefficient of 0.29), but vulnerability to poverty remains high due to unanticipated shocks.
• Key Poverty Groups: The SCD identifies three groups of the poor: traditional poor (rural, low education, reliant on agriculture), transitional poor (urban, low-skill casual laborers), and excluded poor (socially marginalized groups, including ethnic minorities).
• Drivers of Poverty: Low labor productivity, low agricultural output, landlessness, poor infrastructure, conflict, and inadequate government policies contribute to poverty. Additionally, vulnerability to shocks and lack of access to basic services exacerbate the situation.
• Pathways to Poverty Reduction:
  • Private Sector-Led Growth: Promoting openness, sustainable growth, and private sector participation, especially in manufacturing and services.
  • Universal Access to Basic Services: Improving access to health, education, water, sanitation, and electricity, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas.
• Critical Pre-requisites:
  • Facilitating the political transition.
  • Enhancing social inclusion.
  • Maintaining macroeconomic stability.
  • Improving public sector capacity and governance.

Key Interventions

• Agricultural Productivity: Increasing rice yields and diversifying agricultural activities can significantly reduce poverty, especially among the traditional poor. Land reforms and access to finance are essential but must be handled carefully.
• Infrastructure Development: Improving power supply, transportation, and ICT connectivity is crucial for boosting productivity and access to services.
• Social Services: Expanding health and education services, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas, will improve well-being and reduce poverty vulnerability.
• Private Sector Engagement: Removing policy and institutional barriers to investment and fostering private sector growth will create more jobs and opportunities for the transitional poor.
• Conflict Resolution and Inclusion: Addressing the exclusion of the Rohingya community and promoting peace in border areas is essential for long-term development and social inclusion.

Knowledge Gaps and Recommendations

• Data Gaps: Weak data quality, especially in poverty, national accounts, and population statistics, hampers analysis. The 2014 census is expected to improve the sampling frame for future poverty assessments.
• Future Work: The SCD recommends further analytical work to better understand poverty dynamics, particularly in border areas, and to update poverty numbers. This includes identifying more granular priorities and improving the accuracy of data collection.

Conclusion

The SCD outlines a strategic framework for ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Myanmar. It emphasizes the need for a dual approach: promoting private sector-led growth and ensuring universal access to basic services. These efforts must be supported by political reforms, social inclusion, and improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.