2000年-世界发展银行全球_Vietnam___Export_Performance_in_1999_and_Beyond_27页_369kb

报告摘要

Summary of Vietnam's Export Performance in 1999 and Beyond

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Vietnam's export performance in 1999 and its implications for future growth. It highlights the significant role of both oil and non-oil exports in driving Vietnam's overall export growth, as well as the impact of trade policies, regional recovery, and the private sector's expansion on export dynamics.

Main Points

Overall Export Growth

Vietnam's total exports grew by 23.4% in 1999, with non-oil exports growing at 16.3%.
Oil exports were a major driver, increasing by 69.7%, contributing 9.2 percentage points to the total export growth.
Non-oil exports accounted for 81.8% of total exports in 1999.
Vietnam's export growth outperformed most neighboring countries in the region.

Key Sectors

The three most important sectors in non-oil exports were garments, footwear, and seafood, growing at 29.3%, 39.1%, and 16.3% respectively.
These sectors contributed over two-thirds of non-oil export growth and two-fifths of total export growth.
Manufacturing was the largest contributor to non-oil export growth, with a 32.5% growth rate, accounting for 10.2 percentage points of total export growth.
Agriculture had a modest contribution to export growth, with only 1.2 percentage points, due to falling prices.

Export Demand

China, Australia, and Japan accounted for around half of Vietnam's total export growth in 1999.
Non-oil exports to Japan, China, Laos, and South Korea (four Asian countries) and Belgium, UK, Germany, and France (four European countries) contributed 70% of the non-oil export growth.
Non-oil exports to Singapore and Hong Kong (China) declined by 30% and 26%, respectively, possibly due to import diversion and subcontracting shifts.

The Private Sector

Private sector exports grew significantly, with non-oil exports by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) increasing by 72.5% between 1997 and 1999.
This growth contributed 39.1% to the total non-oil export growth.
Despite a decline in investment since 1997, private SMEs and foreign investors were able to sustain export growth due to existing capacity utilization and higher value-added exports.

Regional Recovery and Trade Policies

The regional recovery in Asia played a role in Vietnam's export performance, particularly in non-oil exports.
Europe absorbed nearly half of Vietnam's non-oil export growth in 1999, indicating a stronger role of European markets than the regional recovery in Asia.
Vietnam's trade policies such as reducing export taxes and liberalizing the private sector have been key to its export success.
The signature of a trade agreement with the U.S. is critical to ensuring normal access to the U.S. market and sustaining future export growth.

Future Outlook

Oil prices are expected to rise in 2000 but will decline sharply in the following years.
Vietnam's non-oil export growth is projected to slow in 2000 to 14%, compared to 16.3% in 1999.
The sustainability of export growth depends on continued reforms and policies that support private sector investment and market access.

Key Information

Total exports in 1999: $11,520 million (up from $9,338 million in 1998).
Oil exports: Grew by 69.7%, contributing 39.4% to total export growth.
Non-oil exports: Grew by 16.3%, with manufacturing leading the growth.
Private sector: Accounted for 72.5% growth in non-oil exports from 1997 to 1999.
Export growth by region: Europe contributed 48.5% of non-oil export growth, while Asia (non-ASEAN) contributed 33.1%.
Import restrictions: Helped avoid an external deficit in 1998 but had a negative impact on some export markets.
Trade agreement with the U.S.: Is a crucial factor for future export performance.

Conclusion

Vietnam's export performance in 1999 was exceptional, driven by oil price increases and strong growth in non-oil sectors. The private sector played a significant role in this growth, and continued liberalization and market access improvements are essential for sustaining the trend. While regional recovery contributed to some of the growth, European markets were more influential. The future growth of exports will depend on policies and market access, especially with the U.S. and the management of oil price fluctuations.