2013年-世界发展银行全球_The_Evolving_Importance_of_Banks_and_Securities_Markets_15页_405kb

Summary of "The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets"

Core Content

This paper by Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Erik Feyen, and Ross Levine explores the evolving importance of banks and securities markets in the context of economic development. The authors argue that as economies grow, the role of banks and securities markets in driving economic activity changes. Specifically, the services provided by banks become less important, while those provided by securities markets become more significant.

Main Views

• Economic Development and Financial System Evolution: As countries develop economically, both banks and securities markets grow in size relative to the economy. However, the growth of these financial systems is not uniform; securities markets tend to develop more rapidly than banks.

• Changing Roles of Financial Institutions:

  • The association between economic activity and bank development decreases with economic development.
  • Conversely, the association between economic activity and securities market development increases as economies grow.

• Theoretical Support: The findings align with economic theories that suggest banks are better suited for financing standardized, low-risk projects, while securities markets excel in customizing financial arrangements for high-risk, long-term, and intangible asset-based projects.

• Quantile Regression Methodology: The authors use quantile regression to assess how the relationships between economic activity and financial development change across different levels of economic development. This method allows for the analysis of how financial indicators influence economic activity at each percentile of GDP per capita, rather than just the average.

• Empirical Evidence: The paper presents empirical evidence that supports the idea that the impact of financial development on economic activity is not constant but varies with the level of economic development.

Key Information

• The study covers 72 countries over the period 1980–2008, using five-year averaged data.
• Private credit is used as a measure of bank development, representing deposit money bank credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP.
• Stock value traded and securities market capitalization are used to measure securities market development.
• The dependent variable is log real GDP per capita, which is used to capture economic activity in a more stable form.
• Standard controls include:
  • Log initial GDP per capita (1980)
  • Log average years of schooling
  • Log openness to trade
  • Log inflation rate
  • Log government size
• Quantile regression results show that:
  • The coefficient of private credit decreases as GDP per capita increases.
  • The coefficient of stock value traded increases as GDP per capita increases.
  • These trends are consistent across different specifications, including the inclusion of standard controls.
  • The OLS estimates are compared to the quantile estimates, revealing that the relationship between financial development and economic activity is not uniform.

Methodological Contributions

• The paper introduces quantile regression as a method to assess how the relationship between financial development and economic activity evolves across different levels of development.
• This approach allows for the identification of how the marginal impact of financial indicators changes with economic development.
• The analysis is robust to different measures of financial development, including stock market capitalization and securities market capitalization.

Limitations and Policy Implications

• The study does not identify causal mechanisms, and thus the results should be interpreted as correlations rather than direct causal effects.
• The findings suggest that financial systems become more market-based as economies develop.
• The paper emphasizes the policy relevance of the results, indicating that the optimal mix of banks and markets may change as economies grow.
• It also highlights that previous studies may have provided misleading estimates of the impact of financial development on economic activity due to a lack of consideration for the evolving importance of different financial institutions.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that as economies develop, the role of banks in economic activity becomes less significant, while the role of securities markets becomes more important. This shift underscores the need for policy frameworks that adapt to the changing nature of financial systems in different stages of economic development.