2013-01-18-奥纬咨询-Davos_2013_80页_14mb

Global Risks 2013 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks 2013 report, now in its eighth edition, is an initiative of the Risk Response Network (RRN) by the World Economic Forum. It highlights the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of global risks and emphasizes the importance of resilience in addressing these challenges. The report is based on an annual survey of over 1,000 experts from various sectors, including industry, government, academia, and civil society, who assessed 50 global risks across five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.

Main Points

• Resilience is the central theme of the report, reflecting the need for cross-border collaboration and systemic thinking to manage global risks.
• The report outlines three key risk cases:
  • Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience: Examines the simultaneous stress on global economic and environmental systems, suggesting the potential for a "perfect global storm."
  • Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World: Focuses on the spread of misinformation through social media and its geopolitical implications.
  • The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health: Discusses the risk of antibiotic resistance and the need for new drug development and incentive alignment.
• X Factors are introduced as emerging concerns that are not yet widely recognized by decision-makers. These include:
  • Runaway climate change
  • Significant cognitive enhancement
  • Rogue deployment of geoengineering
  • Costs of living longer
  • Discovery of alien life

Key Risks Identified

• Most likely to manifest: Severe income disparity
• Highest impact: Major systemic financial failure
• Top five risks by likelihood and impact:
  • Severe income disparity
  • Major systemic financial failure
  • Chronic fiscal imbalances
  • Water supply crisis
  • Climate change failure to adapt

Changes in Risk Perceptions

• Unforeseen consequences of life science technologies was the biggest mover in terms of likelihood.
• Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation moved the most in terms of impact compared to last year.

Methodology and Structure

• The report uses network diagrams and scatterplots to visualize the interconnectedness of global risks.
• A new methodology introduced in 2012 includes expert interviews, workshops, and risk case analysis.
• The Special Report introduces a framework for national resilience, focusing on five components (robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, response, and recovery) and five subsystems (economic, environmental, governance, infrastructure, and social).

Conclusion

The report stresses the importance of building national resilience to global risks, as these risks are complex, interdependent, and global in nature. It highlights the need for strategic investment, policy reform, and collaboration across sectors and borders. The Risk Response Network is invited to engage with leaders and share ideas to improve resilience.

Appendix and Acknowledgements

• The report includes appendices on survey methodology, likelihood and impact ratings, and resilience indicators.
• It acknowledges the contributions of partners such as Marsh & McLennan Companies, National University of Singapore, Oxford Martin School, Swiss Re, Wharton Center for Risk Management, and Zurich Insurance Group.
• A Resilience Practices Exchange was launched to enable leaders to learn and contribute to resilience-building using social enterprise technology.

Call to Action

• Readers are encouraged to engage with the Risk Response Network.
• The interim study on national resilience will be published this summer.
• The report is a flagship publication of the Risk Response Network, aiming to raise awareness, stimulate strategic thinking, and challenge leaders to improve their approach to global risks.